This report covers the growth and harvest of spring wheat In Kazakhstan. In October, winter rye and winter wheat, which are minor crops, were planted in the southern regions of the country. The crop conditions were generally below or close to average from July to October.
Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall was above average (RAIN +23%), while radiation and temperature were below average (RADPAR -4%, TEMP -0.7°C). Precipitation reached 10 mm above the 15-year average in early and late July, and mid-August. The temperature fluctuated along the average level during this reporting period. The agro-climatic conditions resulted in a normal level for the potential biomass (BIOMSS).
The national average maximum VCI index was 0.72. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was down by 7% over the recent five-year average, and the Cropping intensity (CI) decreased by 18%. The spatial VCIx map matched well with the national crop condition development graphs. Crop conditions on about 21.5% of croplands were above average during the reporting period, mainly in southeastern areas of Akmola State and northeastern areas of Shyghys Kazakstan State. About 66.9% of croplands, which were distributed across the southern region, and most of Soltustik Kazakstan, Pavlodar, and Batysdy Kazakstan States, experienced poor crop conditions during the whole monitoring period except for mid-July. Remaining croplands (about 11.6%) experienced unfavorable crop conditions from July to mid-August, and then recovered to above average till end of October, mainly in the northern parts of Kostanay Sate.
Overall, due to below-average CALF and crop conditions, spring wheat production is estimated to be below average.
Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).
The Northern region is the main spring wheat production area. Accumulated rainfall was above average (RAIN +20%), but RADPAR and temperature were below average. According to NDVI profiles, crop conditions were below average from July to September. The average VCIx for this region was 0.71, and the proportion of cultivated land was 8% lower than the average. Production is estimated to be below average.
Crop conditions in the Eastern plateau and Southeastern region were mostly below average from July to August, and close to average from September to October. The accumulated rainfall in the region was above average (+31%), while radiation and temperature were below average (RADPAR -6%, TEMP -1.5°C). The average VCIx for this region was 0.76, and CALF was below average by 6%. Production of spring wheat is unfavorable.
The South region received 40 mm of rainfall only, which was far below average (down 24%). The average VCIx for this region was 0.77. CALF was above average by 4%. NDVI profiles show the poor crop condition from July to October.
(b) 基于 NDVI 的作物生长过程线
(f)NDVI 距平空间聚类图 (g) NDVI 距平聚类过程线
表3.1哈萨克斯坦农业生态分区2020年7月-10月与过去 15 年（15YA）同期农业气象指标
|当前季 (mm)||15YA 距平 (%)||当前季 (°C)||15YA 距平 (°C)||当前季 (MJ/m2)||15YA 距平 (%)||当前季 (gDM/m2)||15YA 距平 (%)|
表3.2 哈萨克斯坦农业生态分区 2020年7月-10月与近5年(5YA）同期农情指标
|当前季||5YA 距平 (%)||当前季||当前季||5YA 距平 (%)|