In Mozambique, the July-October monitoring period is the dry season and covers mostly land preparation. During this period, maize sowing started in southern Mozambique, followed by rice in late October. Except for rainfall (RAIN +15%), decreases in the remaining agroclimatic indicators were observed (TEMP -0.4ºC and RADPAR -7%). Estimated biomass production also decreased by about 4%. With few crops growing in the field, the NDVI development graph was well below the average of the past five years, and the spatial NDVI patterns show that only 7.7% of the arable land, mostly along the Limpopo River (southern Mozambique) which is irrigated, presented favourable crop conditions. During this period, CALF was near average and a maximum VCIx of 0.81 was observed.

本通报监测期为2020年7-10月，该时段是莫桑比克的旱季，农田主要已翻耕备耕农事活动为主。其中，莫桑比克南部作物播种较早，玉米于10月初开始播种，10月下旬水稻播种也陆续开始。农业气象指标显示，除降水偏高15%以外，其余农业气象指标均低于平均水平，其中平均气温偏低0.4^oC，光合有效辐射偏低7%，光合有效辐射偏低导致潜在生物量也偏低约4%。基于NDVI的作物生长过程线显示，由于仅少量耕地种植了作物，植被指数总体较低；而NDVI距平聚类过程线显示，仅7.7%的耕地上植被指数高于平均水平，主要分布在林波波河（莫桑比克南部）沿岸，这些地区主要依赖灌溉。监测期内全国耕地种植比例接近平均水平，最佳植被状况指数为0.81。

Regional analysis

According to the cropping system, topography and climate, CropWatch has subdivided Mozambique into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Buzi Basin, Northern High-altitude Areas, Low Zambezi River Basin, Northern Coast, and Southern Region.

区域分析

根据耕作制度、地形条件和气候分区，莫桑比克被分为五个农业生态区（AEZ），分别为：布齐河流域、北部高海拔地区、赞比西流域下游、北部沿海地区和莫桑比克南部。

With the exception of the Buzi basin, the country's sub-regions development graphs based on the NDVI indicates below-average crop conditions in all agro-ecological zones. All agro-ecological zones recorded increases in rainfall. Highest increases were recorded in the Buzi basin and High-altitude areas (about 19% and 31%), as compared to the 15YA. In the Buzi basin, Low Zambezi river basin and Southern region, the temperature decreased by about 0.7ºC, 0.5ºC, and 0.7ºC, respectively. The temperature in Northern High-altitude areas was near average, while a slight decrease of about 0.1ºC was recorded in the Northern coastal area. The increased rainfall will be beneficial for the upcoming sowing period. CALF was estimated at 90% (+2%). In general, prospects for the upcoming main growing season are favourable.

基于NDVI的作物生长过程线可知，除布齐河流域外，所有农业生态区的作物状况低于平均水平。所有分区的降雨量均高于过去15年平均水平，其中布齐河流域和北部高海拔地区的降水偏高幅度较大，分别偏高约19%和31%。布齐河流域、赞比西流域下游和南部地区，气温分别下降了约0.7℃、0.5℃和0.7℃。北部高海拔地区气温接近平均水平，北部沿海地区气温略有下降，降幅约0.1℃。莫桑比克南部耕地种植比例约为90%，较平均水平偏高约2%。总的来说，全国和各农业生态区普遍偏高的降水对即将开始的作物播种、出苗和早期生长发育有利。

图3.32 2020年7月-10月莫桑比克作物长势

(a) 主要作物物候历

(b) 基于NDVI的作物生长过程线                                                             (c)  最佳植被状况指数

(d) NDVI距平空间聚类图（与5年平均相比）                                  (e) NDVI距平聚类过程线

(f) 降水时间过程线                                                                               (g) 温度时间过程线 

(h) 基于NDVI的作物生长过程线（布齐河流域（左）和北部高海拔地区（右）

(i) 基于NDVI的作物生长过程线(赞比西流域下游（左）和北部沿海地区（右）)

(j) 基于NDVI的作物生长过程线(莫桑比克南部) 

表3.55 莫桑比克农业生态分区2020年7月-10月与过去15年（15YA）同期农业气象指标

表3.56 莫桑比克农业生态分区2020年7月-10月与近5年(5YA)同期农情指标