This report covers the main maize and rice production period. They were harvested in October. It also covers the sowing of winter barley and wheat. Overall, crop conditions were generally favorable from July to October.
RAIN was slightly below average (-2%), together with lower TEMP and RADPAR (-0.3°C and -3% respectively), which resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS (-1%), CropWatch agro-climatic Indicators (CWAIs) were close to average over the 15YA. The overall favorable conditions, together with a high VCIx (0.96) and a significant increase of the fraction of cropped arable land (+12%) indicate favorable production prospects for the summer crops.
As shown by the nationwide NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to average in July and August but later reached and even exceeded the maximum of 5YA in September, which was consistent with the time series profile of RAIN. According to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, 7.2% of the cropped areas presented continous below average conditions during the reporting period, which were mostly distributed along the rivers. This could be a result of flooding over the areas close to the rivers due to excessive rainfall. About 22.6% of cropland, concentrated in northern Pakistan, northern Multan and eastern Hyderabad, presented slightly below average conditions before August but recovered to average starting in September. Cropping Intensity for the whole country was 95%, which was 27% above average.
Regional analysis 区域分析
For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agroclimatic conditions: the Lower Indusbasin, the Northern highlands, and the Northern Punjab region.
In the Lower Indus basin, RAIN was greatly above average (+80%) ,TEMP and RADPAR were below average by 0.1°C and 4% respectively. The estimated BIOMSS was 4% above average. NDVI was average in July and August, and later markedly above.The CALF value of 66% exceeds the average by 15% and a VCIx of 0.92 also indicates excellent crop conditions. Overall, the situation for the region is assessed as favorable.
在印度河下游流域，降水量显著偏高80％，气温和光合有效辐射分别低于平均值 0.1°C和3％，综合因素导致潜在生物量偏高4%。基于NDVI的作物生长过程线显示，7-8月作物长势低于平均水平，随后作物加速生长，长势超过近5年平均水平。耕地种植比例为66％，较2019年偏高15％，最佳植被状况指数为0.92, 表明作物长势总体优于近5年最佳水平。总体上，该地区的作物长势喜人。
Compared to average, in the northern highland region, RAIN was above average by 5% and RADPAR and TEMP were below (-5% and -0.6°C respectively). BIOMSS decreased by 10%. The region also showed a low CALF of 65%, but still higher than the 5YA by 12%. The NDVI profile stayed below average during July to August and subsequently recovered. Overall, the situation for the region is deemed to be at least average.
Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region of Pakistan, recorded below average RAIN (-21%). TEMP and RADPAR were below average (-0.2°C and -2% respectively). The resulting BIOMSS was 18% below average. The NDVI profile presented below average conditions during the July to August period, mainly due to a slow start of the monsoon rains. Heavy rainfall in August promoted crop growth and NDVI exceeded the maximum of 5YA from September to early October. In addition, CALF in this area reached 84%, which was up by 7% compared to 2019, and VCIx was at 0.94. Overall, the crop production potential for the region is assessed as favorable.
Figure 3.23. Pakistan crop condition, July - October 2020
图 3.23. 2020 年 7-10月巴基斯坦作物长势
(a) Phenology of major crops 主要作物物候历
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile 基于 NDVI 的作物生长过程线和降水时间过程线
(c) Maximum VCI 最佳植被状况指数
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA NDVI 距平空间聚类图 (e) NDVI profiles NDVI 距平聚类过程线
(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus River Basin) 基于 NDVI 的作物生长过程线(印度河下游地区)
(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highland）基于 NDVI 的作物生长过程线(北部山区)
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Punjab) 基于 NDVI 的作物生长过程线(北部旁遮普邦 )
Table 3.56. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2020
巴基斯坦农业生态分区 2020年 7 -10 月与过去 15 年（15YA）同期农业气象指标
Table 3.57. Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2020
巴基斯坦农业生态分区 2020年 7 -10 月与过去 5 年（5YA）同期农情指标