This report covers the second half of the monsoon season, which lasts from May to October. The harvest for the main maize was completed at the end of September, followed by the harvest for the main rice crop. The second maize and second rice crops started to be planted in October. Compared to average, the country suffered a small precipitation deficit (RAIN, -2%) accompanied by warmer temperatures (TEMP, +0.4℃) and higher radiation (RADPAR, +3%). In response, the biomass (BIOMASS) for the country showed a slight rise by 3% compared to average. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) for the country was almost close to 100% and the maximum VCI value was at 0.97, which means the crop conditions were generally favorable.

本次报告涵盖了菲律宾从5月持续到10月的季风期后半段。报告期内，主季玉米的收割已于9月底完成，随后是主季稻的收割，而次季玉米和次季稻在10月份开始播种。与平均水平相比，菲律宾的累积降水量略微下降2%，平均气温增高0.4℃和光合有效辐射偏高3%。此外，全国的潜在生物量水平与平均水平相比略微增长3%。全国耕地种植比例几乎接近100%，最佳植被状况指数高达0.97，说明作物生长状况总体良好。

According to the NDVI profile for the country, conditions were near average until October. The slight departure in early August may have been due to cloud cover in the satellite image or temporal flooding. The negative departures of NDVI starting in September can probably be attributed to the frequent typhoons. Especially the  17th typhoon Saudel and 18th typhoon Molave caused widespread flooding. 

基于NDVI生长过程线，全国整体的作物状况在10月之前都接近平均水平。八月初略微低于平均水平，可能是由于卫星图像中的云覆盖或暂时的洪水造成的，而始于9月的NDVI下降，可能与频繁发生的台风有关。特别是第17号台风“Saudel”和第18号台风“Molave”造成了大面积的洪水。

Considering the spatial patterns of NDVI, around 52.7% of cropland, mainly located in the western coast and middle area of Luzon island and most part of Mindanao island, had a stable NDVI which was close to average during the reporting period. For about 17.1% of the cropland, NDVI was close to average before October and suffered a great decrease of up to 0.4 NDVI units in October. This was mainly in the Central Luzon region, south CalgayanValley region and south Cordillera region. Although the great decrease was due to cloud cover brought by typhoon in satellite images, the vegetation there suffered a lot as well, which was reflected in a decrease of the NDVI curve. An anomaly, in which the NDVI dropped up to 0.4 NDVI units in middle October and recovered 0.35 NDVI units in late October, appeared in Southern Tagalog region and the middle of Calgayan Valley region. Another anomaly, in which the NDVI dropped over 0.35 NDVI units in early August and recovered 0.4 NDVI units in middle August was observed for the Southern Tagalog region and Southern Mindanao region, on around 18.7% of crop land. Subsequently, the NDVI for these regions decreased gradually. Both anomalies may have been caused by cloud cover in the satellite image, while the general drop of NDVI in October is probably due to the influence of typhoons. All in all, taking the NDVI without anomalies and near-average agro-climate indicators into consideration, the estimated production  for the country in the reporting period is slightly below average.

NDVI的距平空间聚类图表明，主要分布在吕宋岛西海岸和中部地区以及棉兰老岛大部分地区的约52.7%的耕地，其NDVI在报告期内处于稳定且接近于平均水平。约17.1%的耕地，其NDVI在10月份前接近平均水平，而10月份下降幅度较大，高达0.4个NDVI单位。这些耕地主要分布在吕宋中部地区、卡加颜河谷南部地区和南科迪勒拉南部地区。虽然NDVI的大幅降低是由于卫星影像上台风带来的云雨遮盖造成，但是植被生长状况也受到了频发台风的很大影响，主要表现为NDVI曲线的下降。此外，在塔加洛南部地区和卡加颜河谷中部地区出现过一次NDVI异常，表现为10月中旬NDVI下降高达0.4个NDVI单元，而10月下旬恢复了0.35个NDVI单元。另外，在塔加洛南部地区和棉兰老岛南部地区总共约占18.7%的耕地，其NDVI在8月初下降超过0.35个NDVI单元，在8月中旬恢复了0.4个NDVI单元，也被认为属于NDVI异常。随后，这些区域的NDVI水平逐渐降低。这两种异常可能都是由卫星图像中的云量造成的，但10月份NDVI的总体下降趋势可能是受台风影响。总而言之，考虑到没有异常的NDVI和接近平均水平的农业气候指标，菲律宾在次报告期内的预期产量略低于平均水平。

区域分析

Based on the cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Lowlands region (northern islands), the Hilly region (Island of Bohol, Sebu and Negros), and the Forest region (mostly southern and western islands). All the regions are characterised by a stable (almost 100%) cropped arable land fraction (CALF) and a high maximum VCI value (VCIx>0.96).

基于耕作系统、气候分区和地形状况，可将菲律宾的耕地归纳为3个主要的农业经济区，分别为低地农业区（北部岛屿）、丘陵农业区（玻尔岛、宿务岛和内格罗斯岛）和农林交错区（主要是南部和西部岛屿）。各分区的耕地种植比例较为稳定，几乎为100%，且最佳植被状况指数都高于0.96。

The Lowlands region experienced warmer temperature (TEMP, +0.5℃) and higher radiation (RADPAR, +6%) compared to average. Although the rainfall (RAIN, -15%) for the region was lower, the potential biomass (BIOMASS, +6%) value was higher than average. In terms of the NDVI profile, the NDVI for the region was lower than average in late July and improved gradually. However, a drop of NDVI appeared in early September again and the departure of NDVI from average reached a maximum at the end of the reporting period. It seems that the typhoons had a great influence on the crops in this region. As a result, the crop conditions were not favorable.

与平均水平相比，低地农业区平均气温偏高0.5℃，光合有效辐射偏高6%。虽然该地区累积降水量较平均水平偏低15％，但潜在生物量高于平均值约6%。同时，该区域耕作强度介于单次和一年2次之间，种植强度相较过去5年平均水平偏低2%。从NDVI生长过程线来看，该区域的NDVI在7月下旬低于平均水平，此后逐渐上升。但是，NDVI相对于平均水平在9月初又开始下降，且在本次报告末期，其与平均水平的偏离达到最大值。台风对作物有很大的影响，并导致了该地区的作物生长状况不佳。

Compared to the previous 15 years, the Hilly region (Negros and central Visayas island region) went through wetter than normal conditions, as the rainfall (RAIN +9%) and the temperature (TEMP +0.5℃) increased. Both the radiation (RADPAR, +4%) and potential biomass (BIOMASS, +4%) for the region were higher than average. As for the NDVI for the region, it was below average in July but recovered to average in middle August. However, the NDVI decreased again in September and was recovering at the end of the reporting period. Crop conditions were generally unfavorable.

与前15年平均水平相比，丘陵农业区在报告期内比正常情况下更加湿润，其累积降水量偏高9%，平均气温偏高0.5℃。该地区的光合有效辐射和潜在生物量均高于平均水平４％。此外，该区域耕作强度介于单次和一年2次之间，种植强度相较过去5年平均水平偏低3%。该地区的NDVI在7月低于平均水平，在8月中旬恢复到平均水平。但是，9月份NDVI再次下降，并在报告末期开始恢复。总体来说，该区作物的条件是不太乐观的。

The Forest region had an above-average rainfall (RAIN, +13%) and slightly warmer temperatures (TEMP, +0.2℃). The radiation (RADPAR) for the region was above average by 1% and the potential biomass (BIOMASS) was close to average. The NDVI profile shows that the NDVI for the region was below average in late July and recovered in middle August. Subsequently, the NDVI dropped to below average again in October. Although the NDVI was varying, the departures of NDVI from the average were relitevely small. As a result, the prospected crop conditions for the region were slightly below or close to average.

农林交错区的累积降水量较平均水平偏高13%，平均气温较平均水平偏高0.2℃。该地区的光合有效辐射高于平均水平1%，潜在生物量接近平均水平。同时，该区域耕作强度介于单次和一年2次之间，种植强度相较过去5年平均水平偏低3%。NDVI生长过程线显示，该地区的NDVI在7月下旬低于平均水平，在8月中旬得以恢复。随后，NDVI在10月份再次降至平均水平以下。尽管NDVI与平均水平有差异，但偏差很小。因此，预期该地区的作物状况略低于或接近平均水平。

 2020年7月-10月菲律宾作物长势

(a) 主要作物物候历

(b) 基于NDVI的作物生长过程线                  (c) 最佳植被状况指数

（d) NDVI距平空间聚类图（与5年平均相比）         (e) NDVI距平聚类过程线

(f) 温度（左）和降水量（右）的时间序列分布

(g) 基于NDVI的作物生长过程线（低地农业区（左）和丘陵农业区（右））

(h) 基于NDVI的作物生长过程线（农林交错区)

菲律宾农业生态分区2020年7月-10月与过去15年（15YA）同期农业气象指标

菲律宾农业生态分区2020年7月-10月与近5年（5YA）同期农情指标