Chapter 4 presents a detailed CropWatch analysis for China,focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east andsouth. After a brief overview, detailed analysis including maps and profilesfor NDVI, VCI, CALF, and BIOMASS are provided for the individual regions.Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturallyimportant Chinese province are provided in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

As shown in table 4.1, China winter crops production isexpected to reach 123.5 million tons, an increase of 1,674 thousand tonscompared to 2013. Both increased yield and increased planting area contributeto the 1.4% increase in production. Among the 11 monitored provinces, Chongqing,  Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi and Sichuan experiencedproduction increases of more than 2%. As the largest producer of winter crops,Henan benefited from the favorable climatic conditions, with winter cropsproduction increasing by 1.1% respectively. Meanwhile, decreased production wasobserved in Shandong and Chongqing due to the decrease in planting area for wintercrops.

Table4.1. China, 2014 winter crops production (thousand tons) and percent differencewith 2013, by province

Table4.2. China, 2014 winterwheat production (thousand tons) and percentdifference with 2013, by province

Winter wheat is the dominant wintercrop in China, accounting for 90.6%. As shown in table 4.2, China winter wheatproduction for 2014 underwent an estimated modest increase of 1.4%, to reachjust above 112 million tons. The differences in production among the provincessomewhat differ from the variations in the agroclimatic and agronomicindicators, with the two neighboring provinces of Jiangsu and Anhui, mostly inthe lower Yangtze ecozone (and CPSZ) undergoing a production increase broughtabout by both increased area and yield. In the Loess region, however(especially Shanxi), the increase directly reflects crop condition comparablewith the best recent years. The reduction of winter wheat planting areas in Shandong,Gansu and Chongqing resulted in decreased production.

In China, most winter crops including winter wheat andrapeseed were in wintering and tillering stage during the reporting period. Thecondition of the winter crops was slightly above the recent five-year average.Figures 4.1-4.5 illustrate the distribution and profiles of RAIN and TEMPindicators and profiles, as well as the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF),maximum VCI, and minimum VHI. Indicator values are provided in table 4.3.

Figure 4.1. China spatial distribution ofrainfall profiles (a) and rainfall profiles (b), January-April 2014

Agroclimatic indicators in China were generally comparablewith the averages for the same period over the previous five years, with a 3%decrease in rainfall, 1°C increase in temperature, and 2% increase in PAR. Theagroclimatic conditions resulted in biomass 39% above the fifteen-year average.Specifically, rainfall was at an average level to the north of the YangtzeRiver for the whole reporting period, but above (in late March) and below (mid-April)average in South China and the Lower Yangtze River region. Temperature followedalmost the same pattern throughout the country: above average in January andlate March but below average in February.

Agroclimatic conditions were distributed unevenly, resultingin a complicated situation. Both high and low maximum VCI occur scattered inalmost all provinces. Below average rainfall in the Lower Yangtze region andNortheast China resulted in low biomass. In the Northeast region, 50% lowerrainfall resulted in low soil moisture, which will hamper the sowing andemergence of spring wheat, soybean, and maize. Moreover, although climaticindicators demonstrate normal conditions in Southern China, biomass in theregion is 25.4% below average due to the lower temperature in February. Nearlydoubled precipitation in the Loess region favored crop developments and grainfilling in this semi-arid region, as indicated by 80.8% higher biomass and highmaximum VCI (0.96). Although in the central area of the North China Plain—amajor winter wheat producing region—crops suffered from a drought from October2013 to January in 2014, effective rainfall in the recent four months hasboosted soil moisture and allowed crops to recover. Together with the warmerand sunny winter weather and favorable or average conditions after thewintering period in the major winter crop producing areas, CropWatch putsprospects for winter crops at a good level.

The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 70% for thereporting period (with 3.9 percentage points absolute departure from thefive-year average), with most of the uncropped land found in the NortheastChina region, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia and the most northern part of theNorth China Plain (where no crops are in the field during winter). The sowingof spring crops is under way from mid-April. The Lower Yangtze region andSouthern China are the only two regions with below average CALF (decreases of 1and 0.2 percentage points, respectively).

Minimum VHI indicates that the Lower Yangtze region as wellas Sichuan, Chongqing, southern Shaanxi, and central Inner Mongolia experiencedmild water stress, while in other regions, water was adequate for crop growthor planting, especially in the North China Plain, northeast China, GansuProvince, and southern Xinjiang (figure 4.5).

Figure 4.2. China spatial distribution oftemperature profiles (a) and temperature profiles (b), January-April 2014

Figure 4.3. China croppedand uncropped arable land, by pixel, January-April 2014, Figure 4.4. China maximum Vegetation ConditionIndex (VCI), by pixel, January-April 2014

Figure 4.5. China minimum Vegetation HealthCondition Index (VHI), by pixel, January-April 2014

Table 4.3. CropWatch agroclimaticand agronomic indicators for China, January-April 2014, departure from 5YA and13YA