November and December are the harvesting months for wheat inArgentina; summer crops, in particular maize and the first soybean crops, arein emergence and establishment stages. Rainfall from October to January was 10percent above the previous five years, but 6 percent below last year’s.Temperatures were above normal. The crop condition profiles indicate that thedevelopment of soybean and maize was delayed due to the hot and dry weatherconditions. Recent rainfall in January promoted crop emergence andestablishment in part of the main soybean and maize planting regions, but morerainfall is needed in western Buenos Aires and eastern La Pampa regions. Droughtsthere resulted in low maximum VCI and lower biomass, compared to the five-yearaverage.

As indicated by the NDVI clustering profiles, crop conditionis changing from ‘above normal’ to ‘normal’ or ‘below normal’ in most ofArgentina, except for scattered regions in northwestern Buenos Aires andnorthern Santa Fe (figure (b), regions in light green). This confirms theunfavorable conditions that started from November. Winter wheat in the southerncoastal regions of Buenos Aires province—the key winter wheat producing regionscontributing 50 percent of total wheat production—was not affected by the dryseason. In contrast, the above normal PAR in the grain filling and maturingstage is beneficial for winter wheat yield, as shown by the CropWatch estimateof a 9 percent increase in yield compared to last year. Together with the increasingplanting area, CropWatch puts the wheat production estimates for Argentina at9.4 million tons, 14 percent up from last year’s severely reduced production,but still well below the five-year average.

Figure 3.3. Argentinacrop condition, Oct. 2013-Jan. 2014 

                                                                                            Table 3.3. Argentina wheat production estimate for2013-2014