At the end of December, the harvest of both maize in the northeast and wheat (planted in May to June) was completed. First season maize has reached maturity and is ready to be harvested. Generally, rainfall over the monitoring period was below the five- and twelve-year averages, but still 10percent above the same period last year. The below normal precipitation for the last four months is still sufficient for wheat and first season maize yield establishment. Crop condition was generally above normal and better than the same period one year ago, confirmed by the crop condition development graph (e).Considering the spatial patterns of NDVI departure clusters and corresponding profiles, most areas in Brazil benefited from average to above average conditions, except for central and southern Goiás. Crop condition in Rio GrandeDo Sul, the first wheat producing state in Brazil, is slightly above normal with high maximum VCI and biomass. Low precipitation (12 percent below normal)in the second wheat producing state—Parana—significantly affected wheat yield;CropWatch estimates the yield for this state at 1.84 ton/ha, 30 percent below the country’s average yield. Below normal rainfall in Goiás, Mato Grosso DoSul, Minas Gerais, Parana, and Sao Paulo resulted in low biomass compared to the five year average (d).

In general, unevenly distributed rainfall was the dominant stress factor for crops over the monitoring period, but the key wheat producing regions were rarely or slightly affected by the water stress. Maize and soybean in the field may be influenced by the dry weather conditions if lack of rainfall continues. Overall, CropWatch estimates put the output of the recently harvested wheat crop at 5.75 million tons (table 3.5), coinciding with national estimates and representing a welcome improvement (about 30 percent increase) over the reduced 2012 output.