This analysis covers the sowing and growing stage of winter cereals in Uzbekistan from October 2013 to late January 2014. Currently in the field are mostly winter wheat and barley. The country as a whole enjoyed a large increase of rainfall (95 percent) and biomass (66 percent) while temperature and PAR are just above the recentfive-year average (2008-2003) for the same period. A detailed look at theindicators shows a less rosy picture in some parts, especially in the very east(Ferghana, Andijan, and Namangan) where maximum VCI (figure a) is mostly below0.7. From December to early January, the national NDVI profiles (figure e)indicate that crop condition is well below the recent five-year average. Moreprecise spatial information is provided by the NDVI clusters, which show a dropin early January and a recovery thereafter in the mentioned areas of Ferghana,Andijan, and Namangan (due to heavy rainfall and snow), while other easternareas underwent a sharp decrease at the end of January (Sirdarya, Jizzakh,Samarkand, Kashkadarya, and Bukhara; figures b and c). However, the rain andsnow will help replenish water reserves and improve soil moisture conditionsfor the upcoming spring and summer crops. Altogether, prospects for the ongoingand future spring seasons are rather positive.

Figure 3.30. Uzbekistan crop condition, Oct. 2013-Jan. 2014 (a)