Two statistically significant long-term trends are affecting the Europe-West Russia MPZ: uncultivated arable land (UAL) and the potential biomass ratio (PBR). UAL underwent an increase over the last twelve years; the current absolute value is low (under 1 percent) and decreased compared with the average of the last five years. According to figure 2.5a, the areas where most uncultivated arable land occurs are situated in a crescent-shaped area in the southeast of the MPZ, including the areas of Orenburg, Saratov, west Volgograd,and west Rostov. The two last oblasts belong to the area of the highest cropping intensities in the MPZ.

Table 2.4 Europe-W. Russia MPZ: Croppingintensity, uncultivated arable land, and potential biomass ratio

Note: The normalized trend is the 2002-2013 trend normalizedby dividing it by the eleven-year average. Significance level of the trend is *for p<=0.05 and ** for p<=0.01.

The potential biomass ratio for this MPZ has been decreasingsystematically over the last 12 years. The current season is no exception tothis, even if the drop is minimal compared with the average of the last fiveseasons. Cropping intensity, on the other hand, remained rather stable over thelast 12 years, increasing from 104 to 107 percent only. More recently, theindicator started decreasing, with almost 3 percentage points lost this yearcompared with the recent past.

No noteworthy or significant trends in environmental weatherindices (rainfall, temperature and PAR) could be observed for this MPZ.However, compared with both five-year and twelve-year averages, 2013experienced an increase in rainfall and a decrease in both temperatureaccumulation and PAR.

In 2013, temperature profiles underwent two marked dropscompared with average conditions, with a first drop in December and a secondone in March. Both affected the recent 2012-13 winter wheat crop, especially inthe central and eastern northern MPZ (a drop of -5°C). Though less severely(-2.5°C ), the cold period also affected the south of the region, from easternRomania and most of Ukraine, the Kursk oblast, and through the MordovyianRepublic up to the Chelyabinsk oblast, including as well most of the Russian“southern triangle” up to the border of Azerbaijan. The second cold peakaffected the same areas, but was more severe than the first in western Romania,western Ukraine, and Poland.

Slightly above average temperatures were recorded during early summer, which according to the VHI index can be associated with drought conditions in the northeastern Black Sea area, an area covering about one fifthof the MPZ and including an area delimited by Kherson (Ukraine) to the Volgograd oblast, Dagestan and back to Krasnodar (Russia). Rainfall conditionsturned normal in August and slightly below expected seasonal values again inSeptember, which coincided with above average rainfall and much wetterconditions than normal only in the northeastern Black Sea areas (Krasnoyarskand adjacent areas to the east).

Figure 2.5Environmental and crop production related indices for the Europe-W. Russia MPZ

Contact Us

Olympic Village Science Park, West Beichen Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing

+8610-64842375/6

+8610-64858721(Fax)

cropwatch@aircas.ac.cn

中国科学院空天信息创新研究院(AIRCAS)