The CropWatch estimate for the 2013 production of main crops is as follows: wheat, 705 million tons, up 4.1 percent over preliminary 2012FAOSTAT estimates; rice as paddy, 739 million tons, up 1.6 percent; maize, 944million tons, up 0.3 percent; and soybean, 282 million tons, an increase of 1.2percent compared with 2012 (table 3.1). For the thirty one major producers and exporting countries, increases are more modest for wheat (+2.3 percent) and for rice (+0.8 percent), while they exceed the rest of the world for maize (+1.7percent) and for soybean (+1.6 percent). The “rest of the world,” usually regarded as of little relevance, has achieved spectacular trend-based increases(+13.4 percent for wheat, +8.4 percent for rice) and decreases (-6.1 for maize). Soybean stagnates at about -0.8 percent, resulting from the behavior of the many countries that attempt to join the very small group of soybean exporting countries, but usually give up after some years of experimenting with the crop.

Major exporters

Considering only the nine countries (from the United States to Argentina) that normally contribute 80 percent of world wheat exports, the variation over 2012 is +3.8 percent. However, Russia, which normally ranks 5th,thanks to a spectacular +24.5 percent increase in production rises to the second position this year as the first four exporters (United States, France,Canada, and Australia) all suffered decreases, sometimes significant ones (-5.9percent, -2.8 percent, -3.2 percent and -4.2 percent, respectively).

Although their accumulated rice production remained virtually unchanged over last year (252 million tons), the five major rice exporters show a situation that is not unlike the one described for wheat, as the first four exporters all underwent a production decrease (Thailand: -4.3percent; Vietnam: -1.5 percent; Pakistan: -1.1 percent and the United States:-3.6 percent). The production increase in India (+ 1.74 percent) is relatively modest and represents about 2.6 million tons of paddy (about 1.8 million tons of milled rice equivalent), which is of the same order of magnitude as the population-based increase in demand. Considering that wheat production decreased by about 4million, the increased domestic demand for rice may lead to a reduction in Indian rice exports.

Considering maize, the four major exporters (United States,Argentina, Brazil, and France) jointly increased their production by 3 percent,with an increase in the United States (+7.3 percent) compensating decreases inArgentina (-3.7 percent) and especially Brazil (-11.0 percent). For soybean, the United States, Brazil and Argentina increased their joint output by 2.2 percent,again with one country (Brazil, +6.9 percent) making up for the reduction in another (Argentina, -2.5 percent).

Other notable changes

For wheat, the decrease in U.S. production is this year’smost negative change compared with 2012, as estimated by CropWatch. It is followed by India (-4.2 percent) and by Australia (-4.2 percent). On the Americancontinent, Mexico performed significantly better than last year (+30.3 percent)followed by both Brazil and Argentina at about +14 percent. In Eurasia, fourneighbors hold the records with +17.3 percent in Romania, +20.8 percent in theUkraine, +25.0 percent in Russia, and as much as +35 percent in Kazakhstan.

Table 3.1 2013 production (maize,rice, soybean, wheat), by country (thousand tons)

Two significant rice producers, Egypt (-6.3 percent) and Myanmar (-6.1 percent) decreased their productions compared with last year,albeit for different reasons; Thailand suffered a 4.3 percent reduction, while Argentina and Brazil saw increased outputs (5.7 percent and 9.1 percent,respectively).

Among the countries that normally produce more than 1 milliontons of maize, significant decreases are computed by CropWatch in Bangladesh(-25.0 percent), Poland (-19.8 percent), Brazil, and Mexico (both countries close to -10 percent) and South Africa, a major producer in the African region(-8.6 percent). Pakistan (+10 percent) and Romania (+48 percent) are the best performers this season.

China and Argentina, two of the major soybean producers,underwent a reduction in their output this year, amounting to -6.8 percent in the first and -2.5 percent in the second country. Improved soybean production was recorded in India (+3.1 percent) and particularly in Brazil (+6.9 percent).

3.2 Cropland use intensity

Table 3.2 lists several indicators for land use and land use intensity for the countries covered by CropWatch, including cropping intensity(number of crops), the area of uncropped arable land (percentage), and the potential biomass ratio (as a fraction of 0 to 1).

The highest values for cropping intensity are recorded inthe mostly equatorial countries in Southeast Asia. They are followed by African countries and countries in Central Asia, North and South America, and Australia, which have intensities around 150 percent. European countries are generally characterized by low cropping intensities of close to 100 percent, asthey usually practice one winter crop, a rainfed spring crop, and sometimes as ummer crop (maize), which is sprinkler or gravity irrigated (mostly rice inItaly, France and Spain).

Compared with the average of the previous five years, changesin cropping intensities are usually in the range of -5 percent to +5 percent,with most of the changes negative. The extreme values constitute marked changeswhen they occur at the national scale, and negative departures are in alllikelihood associated with adverse crop and environmental conditions, such asin Ethiopia (-4.2 percent) with a poor belg season. Other changes seem to be associated with changes in agricultural policy. The largest variation is foundin Uzbekistan (-10.2 percent). Significant positive long-term trends are observed in China, Nigeria, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Argentina. Long-termnegative trends can be associated with shortages of resources (land, water,inputs) or environmental degradation. The only significant negative trends affecting cropping intensity are noted in Egypt and could be associated with governmentefforts to limit rice cultivation, to reduce Nile water consumption underinternational pressure of fellow Nile Basin countries. The long term trends ingeneral all indicate that the countries are undergoing concerted efforts, orefforts by individual farmers, to keep pace with demand.

Similar to the situation of decreasing cropping intensities, increasing uncropped arable land can result from a variety offactors that can be assessed only based on detailed analysis of national data on policies and environment driven farm dynamics. When the variable itself(UAL) is low, changes are naturally of little interest and the risk of observational errors is high. Conjectural effects are clearly at work as well,when environmental stresses such as drought or frost artificially depress NDVI.The countries with the highest UAL values include Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan. Inthe two last countries, the UAL is associated with a large percent decrease.Significant long term trends affecting UAL are particularly interesting.Significant negative trends signal countries that make efforts to more efficiently use their land; this includes China, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnamand the Philippines (trend significant), as well as some countries where the

trend is very significant: Pakistan, India, Egypt, andCambodia. Positive trends affect Brazil (*significant) and Russia (**verysignificant).

Table 3.2 Cropping intensity (number ofcrops), uncropped arable land (percentage), and potential biomass ratio(fraction), by country

Finally, the lowest potential biomass ratios (PBR) are observed in Iran, Pakistan and Argentina, while values are particularly high in Poland, Indonesia and Canada, thereby describing extreme situations of realization of the local potential yield during 2013. In Argentina, the mentioned low PBR results from a recent drop compared with the last five years, but in Cambodia and South Africa the low values seem to be more structural. Together with Myanmar, Argentina is one of several countries with long-term drops in PBR.Among the countries with positive PBR trends, the following deserve mentioning:Canada (*), China (**), Egypt (**), Ethiopia (**), India (**), Kazakhstan (*),Nigeria (*), Pakistan (**), Philippines (*), S-Africa (*), Turkey (**) and Russia (*), describing the efforts undertaken by the respective countries to improve their farming efficiency.

Finally, it is stressed that the above indicators are not mutually independent: both the intensity (2013 value) and the direction of the trends associated with PBR and UAL tend to vary in a coherent way as efficiency gains are associated with decreases in unproductive land. Cropping intensity,on the other hand, is only loosely correlated with UAL and PBR; only a weak association exists between the cropping intensity value and the PBR trend.

3.3 Country narratives and figures

For each of the thirty countries covered, CropWatch analyses include a comprehensive array of variables and indicators. The environmental indices—rainfall, temperature, and PAR—are presented in annex D, covering October 2012 to September 2013 or, as shown in figure 3.1, for selected months that are more relevant to the recent and ongoing cropping seasons.

Figure 3.1 Accumulatedrainfall index anomaly, April to September 2013 (percent)

On the subsequent pages, results are presented for each of the thirty key countries. For each, a short narrative is provided, along with maps and graphs showing (a) General setting, provided by a NDVI background showing combined maize, rice, soybean, and wheat cultivation area, and areas where more than 50 percent of the land is irrigated; (b) Crop condition map compared with the average of the previous five years; (c) Crop condition development graph: a comparison of NDVI of the current year with the previous year and the average of the previous five years; (d) Spatial NDVI patterns of the latest or ongoing season; and (e) NDVI profiles associated with the spatial patterns. In addition, production tables are provided for some of the major countries.

Additional information for all countries is provided in annex D, including CropWatch estimates of 2013 yield and the area cultivated by crop. Annex F provides additional background information for the countries covered,while annex G presents basic agricultural statistics and an overview of longer term trends derived from international data.