The harvest of summer crops was completed at the beginning of the monitoring period, and winter crops were in their early vegetative stages under generally average weather conditions in most parts of the MPZ.

The region experienced above normal radiation conditions, with a 6% increase in RADPAR compared to average, while rainfall slightly decreased 2% and temperature dropped by 0.3℃.

Favorable rainfall occurred in November and December in Romania (RAIN +35%), Moldova, Southern Ukraine (RAIN, +19% for whole country) and Southwestern Russia, including the Krays of Krasnodar and Stavropol, the Oblast of Rostov  and the Karachay-Cherkessia Republic. The maximum precipitation occurred in late-December when it reached 75% above average in Romania, Moldova and south-western Ukraine. Below average rainfall affected the MPZ’s north-eastern part (almost 34.2% of the MPZ, all in Russia) from mid-October to mid-January, covering the Oblasts of Orenburg, Samarsky and Ulyanov and the Republics of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan.

Temperature profiles show correlated variations in the whole MPZ except the eastern part (in Russia) mainly in October and November. Almost all areas of Central Europe to Western Russia enjoyed above average temperature from October to late-November, which benefited the development of winter crops. The coldest area occurred in late-November in southwestern Russia and northeastern Ukraine, with a severe cold spell 4.5°C below average.

Due to overall average rainfall and temperatures during the monitoring period in most parts of central Europe and western Russia, the biomass production potential (BIOMSS) for the MPZ as a whole remained stable with an increase of 2% over average. The BIOMASS map also indicates the average situation in the whole northern MPZ and the above-average condition in southern MPZ. The maximum VCI (0.79) is relatively low among all MPZs.

According to the maximum VCI map of this monitoring period, most pixels of the MPZ were in the range of 0.5-0.8 and 0.8-1.0. Uncropped arable land occurs mostly in eastern and southern Ukraine, and southwestern Russia. CALF decreased by 2% over the reference period.

In general, with most parts indicating average crop conditions, prospects for crop production are promising in Central Europe to Western Russia.

Figure 2.6a.  Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ spatial distribution of rainfall profiles (left) and profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm) (right), October 2018-January 2019

Figure 2.6b. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ spatial distribution of temperature profiles (left) and profiles of temperature departure from average (mm) (right), October 2018-January 2019

Figure 2.6c. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ maximum VCI, October 2018-January 2019

Figure 2.6d. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ cropped and uncropped arable land, October 2018-January 2019

Figure 2.6e. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ biomass accumulation potential departure, October 2018-January 2019

Figure 2.6f. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ VHI minimum, October 2018-January 2019