3.1 Overview

Table 3.1 presents the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators for the period from October 2018-January 2019, showing their departure from the five and fifteen-year averages as applicable. Figures 3.1 through 3.4 show the underlying CWAI indicators. While chapter 1 focuses on global climate patterns that characterize the current ONDJ reporting period using large spatial units, the present introduction to chapter 3 focuses on countries, i.e. it aims at identifying countries that suffered abnormal climatic conditions and resulting abnormal agronomic conditions. 164 countries and territories are included, omitting only those which are too small to yield meaningful results at the spatial resolution (approximately 25 km x 25 km at the equator) adopted for the CropWatch agroclimatic indices (CWAIs). They include mostly small island states.

Only for the 30 major producers and China (30+1 countries), Table 3.1 also lists departures from important agronomic variables including the biomass production potential (BIOMSS), Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) and the maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx). BIOMSS provides the rainfall and temperature limited contribution of the reporting period to annual biomass accumulation. CALF indicates which fraction of arable land was actually cropped. Positive departures mean that cultivated area increased over the average of the previous five years (5YA). VCIx is a measure of yield compared with historical yield for the same locations. High values identify areas where crops performed as well as during the best recent years. Below 0 and above 1 values stand for “worst ever” and “best ever”, respectively.  

The major climatic characteristics and anomalies of the reporting period are listed in Chapter 1 and are not repeated in this section which, as mentioned, focuses on countries. Figures 3.1 to 3.4 (RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR and BIOMSS departures, respectively) bear a marked resemblance to the corresponding figures in Chapter 1, although the spatial detail is greater in this chapter where figures include not only countries but also first-level administrative units for the 8 largest countries of the world, of which Kazakhstan is the smallest.

Readers are also invited to consult section 5.2 (Chapter 5) on disasters where additional information is provided for major disasters that occurred during the reporting period, and table 3.1 – mentioned above – which summarises the indicators for the 30 major agricultural countries

The section below starts with a list of abnormal conditions among the major exporters

Major exporters

The available agronomic indicators do not carry the same statistical weight as the agroclimatic indicators because only selected countries are covered. It is, nevertheless, interesting to compare the countries and to highlight “good” and “bad” performers among the top 10 exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybean.

In the southern hemisphere, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and southern Brazil are currently in their summer season. All experienced negative temperatures departures increasing from south to north: -1.3°C in Argentina, -0.8°C and -0.9°C in Paraguay and Uruguay, respectively, and -0.5°C in Brazil. In Brazil, the average results from areas cooler than average by 1.0°C to 1.3°C (Tocantins, Mato Grosso, Acre, Maranhao and Para states) and warm areas such as Santa Clara (+0.4°C) and Rio Grande Do Norte (+1.0°C).

Rainfall was close to average in Brazil and Paraguay but excessive (+29%) in Argentina and very excessive (+63%) in Uruguay where rice but especially soybean and maize are likely to have suffered water logging, replaying the scenario of other recent years.  Major production areas have been affected in Argentina, including Entre Rios (also referred to as Mesopotamia +78%), Santa Fe, Corrientes and La Rioja (all close to +50%) and, at +25%, La Pampa and Buenos Aires.  In Uruguay all Departments had excess precipitation with the lowest values in Treinta y Tres (+28%) and Cerro Largo (+30%) and the highest ones, all exceeding +80% in Canelones, Colonia and Paysandú. The precipitation may, however, provide beneficial soil moisture storage for the next winter wheat crop season.

In India, the major rice exporter, the rice season is over in the main northern producing States of West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh which output about half the national rice production. The reporting period includes the harvest of late kharif crops, mainly in the south. Nationwide, RAIN was generally in short supply (-35%) during the JASO period but too late to negatively affect crops.  In Pakistan, where the crop calendar is similar to India’s, 35% rainfall excess is basically irrelevant for rice exports.

In Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, the reporting period covers the harvest of the monsoon season rice as well as the early stages of dry-season rice. Rainfall was generally low in Cambodia (-20%) but closer to normal in Thailand (+10%) and Vietnam (-8%). Especially in Cambodia

Temperature and RADPAR were close to average among the major rice exporters.

Among the main wheat exporters, most are northern hemisphere countries growing winter wheat. The crop is currently in the field after planting from September to December 2018. The most “abnormal” precipitation records include Russia (-10%, a weak deficit) and the United States (+40%). Other countries had close to average precipitation.  With the exception of France (1.6°C below average temperature, with CALF about average) all had close to average temperature but variable sunshine (-7% in the United States, +5% in Russia and +7% in Ukraine, where CALF increased by a spectacular 13%). The United States and Canada had among the largest CALF drops among the main agricultural countries (-6% and -15%, respectively). Altogether, wheat prospects are not negatively affected by unfavourable conditions during the current reporting period.

In Romania, one of the major European wheat exporters next to France and Germany, CALF was well below the recent average (-25%), with a modest VCIx value of 0.64.

Australia is one of the main southern hemisphere exporters of wheat; the crop was at harvesting during the first months of the reporting period. Altogether, environmental conditions were unfavourable with drought and floods reported from the country (overall, rainfall was down 7%). Positive values do occur in the south (Tasmania +9%, Victoria +12% and South Australia +24%) while in Queensland (-12%) and western Australia (-25%) the ONFJ balance remained negative. The  national VCIx is just average but CALF is down 20% compared with the previous five years. Altogether, favourable wheat output is unlikely.

Agronomic indicators

Romania suffered the largest decrease in CALF among the monitored countries (-35%) without any obvious excessive environmental conditions nor disaster reports to explain the reduction. The situation is paralleled by Hungary (-17%) where, however, VCIx reaches 0.78 (as opposed to 0.64, a low value) in Romania.

Next to the already mentioned low CALF values in north America and Australia, unfavourable CALF behaviour also occurred in Uzbekistan (-30%).

Large increases between 10% and 20% occurred in Zambia(12%), Mozambique, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Pakistan (19%); between 25% and 30% in Afghanistan, Morocco and Mongolia. Some of the countries (Morocco, Zambia) are in their main growing season and suffered from a precipitation deficit close to 15%.  Both have nevertheless very favourable VCIx (0.93 and 1.08, respectively) which should result in fair crops.

The lowest VCIx values between 0.45 and 0.72 were observed in Afghanistan (0.45), Australia, South Africa, Romania, Canada and Pakistan (0.72). While the presence of Romania in the list confirms the somewhat puzzling low CALF, it is in order to highlight the situation in South Africa. While CALF dropped only 3% nationwide, VCIx (0.62) indicates a mediocre maize crop which results from moderately low precipitation (-15%) at country level. Several summer crop areas, however, had more marked precipitation deficits during the current maize season, including the Free State where rainfall was down 26%. Less severe shortfalls affected Kwa Zulu-Natal (-4%) and Limpopo (-9%). The Free State also had a marked increase in sunshine (+10%). Among other major maize growing areas, Mpumalanga seems to be doing fine but the conditions in the North-West closely resemble those of the Free State, with rainfall down 28% and  sunshine up 8%, increasing crop water demand.  

High VCIx occurs mostly in Asia, starting with Sri Lanka (0.98), Indonesia and Vietnam (0.96), and the Philippines (0.95).  All those countries had average CALF and positive RADPAR departures. Rainfall was average or below (Philippines, -25%). All the countries had a crop in the field (mostly rice, but also maize) for which prospects re thus favourable. High values are also observed in Morocco (1.08), Egypt (1.00), Mozambique (0.96) and Iran (0.95) which also recorded CALF increases between 10% (Egypt) and 50% (Iran).

In the American continent, the largest VCIx values occur in Brazil (0.95) and Mexico (0.93); in Europe in Belarus (0.94) and Poland (0.91), two countries with unusually favourable sunshine (+13% and +8%, respectively).

Abnormal rainfall

An unusually large number of countries experienced precipitation deficits (larger than 30%), mostly in the Caribbean, central America and northern south America. They include Guyana (-56%), Jamaica (-52%), Suriname (-52%), French Guyana (-43%), the Dominican Republic (-40%) and Cuba (-38%).  Several had deficits in excess of 20%, including Panama, Belize, Venezuela, Costa Rica and Trinidad and Tobago. Amounts recorded were usually around 200 mm when expected amounts are close to 400 mm and more. Most of the listed countries are now in their dry season, so that the deficit mostly corresponds to the end of the previous cropping season. For the southernmost countries, which enjoy mostly equatorial conditions, the deficit may even prove beneficial if it does not extend into the next months as it was generally accompanied by abundant sunshine in countries where cloudiness is a limiting factor.

Low rainfall in Asia affected essentially an isolated country in eastern Asia (Japan, -53%) but mostly the south (Bhutan -49%, Nepal -48%, Bangladesh -328%, India -35%) and – to a lesser extent -  the south-east  (Laos -22%, Cambodia -20% and the Philippines-25%).  New Caledonia, which is part of Oceania, is also mentioned here with -36%. The area also covers north-eastern China including and north of the provinces of Liaoning (-37%) and Hebei (-45%.) They are winter crop areas and the major risk is insufficient snow resulting in frost kill.

In eastern and southern Africa, several countries that suffered from the latest El Niño in 2015-16 are affected by drought again, including – in the south – Namibia (-44%),  Botswana (-33%), Zimbabwe (-32%), Lesotho (-28%) and Angola (-21%) and – in the east – Somalia (-40%) and, both about -20%, Kenya and Rwanda. In view of the ongoing main cropping season in the first group, February rainfall will be very critical for the final outcome of the agricultural season.

Finally, four European countries recorded a deficit between 20 and 30%, but raise little concern in view of the limited importance of winter crops at high latitudes: Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands. The same applies to a long list of Oblasts in Russia, which are adjacent to Scandinavia, centred around the Republic of Mordovia and the Oblasts of Moscow and Vladimir (all three units at -32%) and extending as far east as western Kazakhstan.  

Rainfall excesses are reported from the southern Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula where, however, average precipitation tends to be very low during the reporting period (50 mm or less), so that large excess percentages represent relatively modest volumes of water. They do, however, replenish aquifers, boost the growth of rangeland vegetation and generally favourably affect agriculture. This applies to Oman, Yemen, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.  In the Mediterranean and adjacent areas, abundant rainfall affected Turkey, Libya, Lebanon, Iran, Greece and Syria (+26% to +48%) and more significantly Tunisia (+54%), Cyprus (+57%) and Iraq +61%. All those countries are in their main growing seasons and precipitation is welcome. Next to Iran, but further east, Pakistan is one of the countries that recorded the largest positive precipitation anomalies in Asia (+35%).  Turkmenistan had a 36% excess of rainfall.

The list includes more countries across all continents, starting with New Zealand (which is also one of the MRUs discussed in Chapter 1, + 36%), Uruguay (+63%), the United States (+40%), the Republic of Korea and Moldova (both at +80%).

Abnormal Temperature

The most abnormally low temperatures occurred in Eswatini (-1.7°C) and neighbouring Malawi (-1.5°C) and Mozambique (-1.4°C) where average values for the season are close to 25°C. This is unlikely to have created problems, on the contrary: lower than expected temperature has reduced crop water requirements at a time when the main cereal in the region was about to reach flowering.  

Europe also experienced some low temperature values with departures ranging from 1.1°C

below average in Sweden to 1.6°C below average in France. Tunisia and Portugal, both at -1.2°C compared with average, belong to the same area.  

Finally, the two southernmost countries in Latin America, Chile and Argentina, now in their summer season,  both had a modest drop in temperature compared with the average of -1.2°C and -1.3°C, respectively.

Relatively warm winter conditions prevailed in the Caucasus (Azerbaijan and Georgia, departure of +1.1°C; Armenia, +1.4°C) and surrounding areas, in southern Africa (Angola and Namibia, +1.4°C and +1.6°C, respectively) and Mongolia (+1.6°C). In central America both Belize and Guatemala had temperature 1.6°C above average.

Sunshine

At the national level, RADPAR was particularly low in the already mentioned cool area centred on the Caucasus and the Middle-East and spanning 4500 km from Bulgaria to the Almaty region in Kazakhstan and Himachal Pradesh in India. This encompasses Iraq (-11%), Syria (-10%), Armenia (-9%), Turkey, and Tajikistan (both a -8%), Uzbekistan (-5%), Iran and Kuwait (-7% both) and Lebanon and Azerbaijan (-6% both).

China, which includes as well areas with large positive RADPAR departures, suffered a 6% deficit nationwide. The largest provincial values include those of Guizhou, Guangxi and Zhuangzu which are close to -20%, which is considerable. Seven provinces have values between -17% and -10%: Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Guangdong, Shanghai and Hubei, in increasing order.

In the United States, the globally negative RADPAR values (-6%) results from widespread negative departures in the eastern half of the country. However, deficits were moderate compared with China (lowest values around -10% in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Louisiana and Arkansas).

Low values also affected northern Argentina (-8%), Uruguay (-6%) and across Bolivia (-2%) to Peru (-3%).

Large departures of +10% appear in areas that were already mentioned above, i.e. central America (Belize +10%, Honduras +11%, Costa Rica +14%) and especially Baltic and Scandinavian countries, and the Netherlands: Lithuania +16%, Latvia +17% and Belarus +13%;  Sweden +11% and the Netherlands +12%.

Biomass production potential

The response of BIOMSS to RAIN is very spectacular in semi-arid countries such as Yemen (+84%), Eritrea (+85%) and Saudi Arabia with +168%. Total biomass amounts, however, do not exceed 160 grammes DM m⁻² (Eritrea). The lowest values are brought about by Caribbean and central American drought (-38% in Guyana).

Combinations of extremes

Namibia recorded very unusual data for rainfall (-44%), temperature (+1.6°C), sunshine (+12%) and BIOMSS at -34%, making it probably the most anomalous country, climatically, for the period from October 2019 to January 2019.

In Armenia the corresponding values were +21%, +1.4°C, 9% and +7%. The country is part of a larger Middle-eastern cluster where all countries follow the same pattern (RAIN up, TEMP up, RADPAR down and BIOMSS up). They include Iraq (+61%, +0.8°C, -11% and +64%), Kuwait (121%, +0.6°C, -7%,     63%) and Syria (+48%, +1.0°C, -10% and 43%).

The three remaining countries represent south America with Argentina (+29%, -1.3°C, -8%, 8%) and Guyana (-56%    , -0.5°C, 4%, -38%), and the Baltic states in Europe: Latvia    (-19%, 0.1°C, 17%, 1%).