The main crops of Australia are wheat and barley, which are planted mainly from May to July and harvested from October to January. The monitored time period thus covers the harvest of wheat and barley. Based on spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, the crop condition was average from October to December, but dropped to below average in January. To be more specific: the south-eastern part of New South Wales and north-eastern part of Victoria show poor crop conditions with VCIx below 0.5, accounting for about 27.3% of the arable land. However, the south-western part of West Australia and the southern part of Victoria show above average condition from October to January with VCIx above 0.8, accounting for about 29.2% of the cropland. The CALF fell significantly by 19% below the last 5-year average. Below average production is expected for Australia in this season.

Regional analysis

This analysis adopts five agro-ecological regions for Australia, namely the South-eastern wheat zone, South-western wheat zone, Arid and semi-arid zone, Wet temperate and subtropical zone, and Sub-humid subtropical zone.

The crop condition in the South-eastern wheat zone, especially in the northern part showed below average crop condition at the start of the harvest in October. Most of the VCIx lies in the range below 0.5 with CALF decreasing markedly by 34%. Below average production is likely.

The crops in the South-western wheat zone show above average condition at this period of harvesting. The VCIx reaches 0.92 with CALF up 20%. Above average production is expected.

Crop condition in the Arid and semi-arid zone is generally average due to the average agro-climatic condition: rainfall +2%, temperature -0.1℃, RADPAR 2%. With VCIx at 0.69 and a CALF increase of  9%, average crop condition is likely.

The Wet temperate and subtropical zone showed above average crop condition at the time of harvest in October, as rainfall and temperature were close to, but slightly above average (+4% and + 0.6℃, respectively). The VCIx of 0.77 indicates a generally average condition with stable CALF.

Crop condition in the Sub-humid subtropical zone was apparently below average throughout the season, possibly due to below average rainfall (-32%) and hot temperature (1.1℃ above average). Furthermore, CALF dropped significantly (57%) and VCIx of only 0.32, indicating very poor production for this AEZ.

Figure 3.6. Australia crop condition, October 2018-January 2019

(a).Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e)NDVI profiles

(f)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southeastern wheat zone (left)and Southwestern wheat zone (right))

(g)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid zone (left)and Wet temperate and subtropical zone (right))

(h)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone)

Table 3.5.Australia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2018-January 2019

Table 3.6.Australia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2018-January 2019