The reporting period covers the sowing to early growth stages of maize, rice and soybean; in the North-East the harvest of wheat was concluded by the end of December. Generally, crop condition in Brazil was average compared to the previous five years. 

Nationwide, agro-climatic indicators show average conditions with 1% lower rainfall, 0.5℃ lower temperature and RADPAR up 4% compared to average. According to the potential biomass model, the indicator is up 1% above average as a result of average meteorological conditions. Seasonal temperature and rainfall profiles also presents close to average values from October to January . Large positive rainfall anomalies and negative temperature departures are observed only during December. However, there are still significant differences between the nine major agricultural states: Rio Grande Do Sul and Ceara received sufficient rainfall at 13% and 67% above average, respectively; five states including Mato Grosso Do Sul, Parana, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Goias suffered from water shortages, with rainfall deficits of 16%, 14%, 14%, 13%, and 9% respectively. Rainfall in Mato Grosso and Santa Catarina was close to average. A significant anomaly was observed in Mato Grosso where temperature at  26.5 ℃ for the whole state was 1.2°C below average. For the five states with lowere rainfall mentioned above, crops received above average radiation ranging from +4% to +10%. Rainfall was the limiting factors for potential biomass as indicated by the similar amplitude of departures from average between RAIN and BIOMSS for most states. 

The national NDVI development profile for Brazil presents close to average values throughout the reporting period. The stable NDVI development profiles confirms the benefical impact of the abundant rainfall as mentioned in the previous bulletin. According to the NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles, vast areas of cropland in central-south Brazil present lower than average NDVI from December to early January. Those areas coincide with the five states with lower rainfall. However, according to the VCIx map, crops at peak stage during the monitoring period is still comparable to 5YA, reflecting limited effects of low rainfall to overall crop conditions. Another hotspot area is the east coastal areas where VCIx map also shows below 5YA average conditions with VCIx lower than 0.5. National VCIx is 0.95 and CALF is 2% above average which are indications of satisfactory production.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological regions are identified for Brazil. These include the central savanna, the east coast, Parana river, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, subtropical rangeland zone, mixed forest and farmland, and the Nordeste. Over the recent reporting period, 4 zones received below average rainfall including Central Savanna, Coast, Mato Grosso, and Parana Basin; while other 4 zones including Amazonas, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Nordeste, and Southern subtropical rangelands received above average rainfall. Nordeste and Parana Basin are the only two zones with above average temperature. Most zones received average or above average radiation except for southern subtropical rangelands with 4% lower RADPAR. Considering both rainfall and temperature, potential biomass is simulated and compared to previous 5YA. Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Nordeste, and Southern subtropical rangelands presents well above average BIOMSS thanks to the above average rainfall. Coast zone presents largest negative departure from 5YA of BIOMSS and VCIx is also lowest among the eight zones. Also, only Coast zone presents lower than average cropped arable land fraction (CALF) (93%, 2% lower from 5YA).  

Faovarable conditions in Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Nordeste, and Southern subtropical rangelands resulted in above average crop condition as indicated by the NDVI based crop development profiles in the three zones. Accordingly, CALF over those zones are 1%, 49% and 1% above 5YA and VCIx are all above 0.9. It need to be highlighted that CALF in Nordeste is lowest at 85% among the zones, but still increases almost half from 5YA. Northeastern mixed forest and farmland zone is the only zone with VCIx higher than 1.02, indicating better than optimal conditions in the previous five years. 

Below average crop condition are indicated by the lower than 5YA NDVI in the NDVI based development profiles in Central Savanna, Coast, Mato Grosso, and Parana Basin. Low rainfall potentially hampered the crop developments in those zones. Considering the average or above average CALF and high VCIx values, CropWatch nevertheless assesses production prospects over the four zones as average. 

Figure 3.8. Brazil crop condition, October 2018 - January 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) NDVI development graph of whole Brazil                          (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial patterns of NDVI departure profiles

(e) Time series temperature pofile of Brazil                              (f) Time series rainfall pofile of Brazil

(g) NDVI development graph of Southern subtropical rangelands (left) and Parana basin (right)

(h) NDVI development graph of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (left) and Nordeste (right)

(i) NDVI development graph of Mato Grosso (left) and Coast (right)

(j) NDVI development graph of Central Savanna (left)

Table 3.11. Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2018 - January 2019

Table 3.12. Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2018 - January 2019