The current reporting period covers the harvest of summer crops, and the sowing of winter wheat in Canada. Most agricultural areas were covered in snow from November, which limited the relevance of NDVI-based indicators.

Nationwide, rainfall was +6% above average, which has increased soil moisture storage for winter wheat. Both temperature and radiation were slightly below average (TEMP -0.2°C, RADPAR -1%) and the maximum VCI value was 0.71. The potential biomass accumulation index was below the recent five-year average (BIOMSS -12%) as well as CALF (-15%). In the three main winter wheat Provinces, RAIN was below average (Alberta -13%, Manitoba -14%, Saskatchewan -20%), which could lead to drop in the biomass production potential compared to the last 5 years (Alberta -2%, Manitoba -24%, Saskatchewan -14%).

NDVI values from November to January were all lower than 0.15, which was probably caused by the snow, which limits the relevance of NDVI-based indicators for current reporting period. 

Although rainfall in the whole country was above the average, the conditions were not favourable in the three main production provinces, which could result in a water deficit to winter wheat. The production may be worse than during 2018 if the low rainfall continues.

Regional analysis

The Prairies (area identified as 30 in the VCIx map) and Saint Lawrence basin (26, covering Ontario and Quebec) are the major agricultural regions.

In the Prairies, the main food production area in Canada, rainfall was below average (146mm or -14%), the temperature was slightly above the average (+0.6°C) while the radiation was average. The potential biomass was below the five-year average (BIOMSS, -10%). Because of snow, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction dropped significantly (CALF, -30%), the VCIx was 0.64, and the NDVI was largely below the average from November to December, while only slight below the average in January. The crop production of 2019 in this region could be unfavourable if deficit rainfall continues.

In the Saint Lawrence basin region, rainfall was above average of last 15 years (421 mm equivalent to +32%), both the temperature and radiation were below average (TEMP, -1.5°C; RADPAR, -5%). The potential biomass was largely below the average of last 5 years (BIOMSS, -17%), CALF was average and  VCIx was 0.89. The NDVI profiles were similar to the Prairies region. The production of winter wheat in this region could be favourable if the sufficient rainfall continues.

Overall, the large rainfall deficit in the three main production provinces could lead to a drop in crop production if unfavourable environmental conditions continue in Canada.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                           (c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

Table 3.14. October 2018 - January 2019 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.15. October 2018 - January 2019 Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA