The monitoring period covers mainly the harvest of maize, some wheat, teff as well as other Meher season crops. Although there was a slight drop in rainfall compared to average (5%) and sunshine (as measured by RADPAR) was up 2%, nationwide agro-climatic conditions are best described as average. This resulted in close to average biomass production potential (BIOMASS +3%). The maximum VCI was highest (0.83) in the central and northern parts of the country, including Amhara, central Tigray, Oromia, and northeast SNPP. According to the spatial NDVI clusters and profiles, 64.4% of the cropped area experienced favorable conditions compared to the average.

In general, the indicators show favorable crop output for the Meher season.

Regional Analysis

For the current monitoring period, the analysis covers three agro-ecological zones, namely the Southeastern mixed-maize zone, Western mixed maize zone, and Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone. The zones extend over Oromia and Dire Dawa, Harari, Amhara, and Tigray where farmers grow mainly rain-fed cereals.

Precipitation recorded over the Southeastern mixed-maize zone reached 120 mm, which is 27% below average. Both TEMP and RADPAR were just above average (0.9 °C and 1%, respectively). The BIOMSS fell 18% compared with average, the largest value in the country. The CALF decreased below average and the crop condition development graph based on NDVI was mostly below the five-year average. With the maximum VCI values at 0.75, crop prospects are unfavorable.

In comparison with the previous zone, the Western mixed maize zone recorded better rainfall (RAIN 177 mm), 7 % above average. The temperature was slightly below average (TEMP -0.3°C) and the BIOMSS potential is up 11%, which is particularly welcome for range lands and livestock production. The RADPAR increased by 3% while CALF remained constant at 100%, indicating fully cropped arable land. According to the NDVI development graph crop condition was above average. The maximum VCI value was 0.93. All CropWatch Indicators concur in assessing crop and livestock feed condition as favorable.

In the Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone, both the agronomic and agro-climatic indicators were above average. Total rainfall (RAIN at 106 mm) was 11% above average, TEMP increased 0.1°C above average and so did RADPAR (1%), BIOMASS (19%) and CALF (1%). Like the western mixed maize zone, this area was favorable for livestock production. VCIx reached 0.8 in this zone which includes Central Amhara, the main teff and wheat producing area in the country. Crop condition exceeded the average of the previous five years based on NDVI profile. Overall, environmental and crop condition were favorable in this zone, and a good harvest is expected.

Figure 3.12 Ethiopia crop condition, October 2018-January 2019

                                                         (a)  The phonology of major crops 

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI             (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (e) NDVI profile

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (south-eastern mixed and maize (land western mixed maize zone (g))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-teff highlands)

Table 3.19. Ethiopia Agroclimatic indicators by Agroecological zones, current  season values, and departure from 15YA, October 2018-January 2019

Table 3.20. Ethiopia Agronomic indicators by Agroecological zones, current season values, and departure from 5YA, October 2018-January 2019