During this monitoring period, the harvest of the secondary maize was completed and the main season maize was sowed in Java and Sumatra; it is now in vegetative stage. Similarly, main season rice has been sowed while the second rice in Java has reached maturity and was harvested.

Rainfall (RAIN, -1%) and temperature (TEMP, -0.4℃) were average, while radiation (RADPAR +4%) was slightly above, which led to an average of biomass production potential. Crop condition was below average as shown in the NDVI development graph. Spatial NDVI profiles show that crop condition was slightly below average before December but better than average in January 2019 in 36.2% of total cropped areas, mostly following a patchy pattern. In 23.3% of the cropped areas (mostly in Jambi, Sumatera Selatan, Kalimantan Timur, Kalimantan Tengah, and Papua), crop condition was persistently below average in this season. Considering that the area of cropped arable land (CALF) in the country increased by 1% compared with the five-year average and the VCIx value of 0.96, the crop condition is nevertheless anticipated to be close to average.

Regional analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (64), Java (62, the main agricultural region in the country), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (63) and West Papua (65), among which former three are relevant for crops cultivation. The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

The weather over Java was relatively dry compared with average (RAIN, -14%), with above average radiation (RADPAR +7%) and average temperature, resulting in a slight drop (7%) in the biomass production potential. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below the 5-year average. Overall, the crop condition in Java is assessed as fair.

Kalimantan and Sulawesi experienced the same patterns as those for the country as a whole: the average temperature (TEMP, -0.3℃) and radiation (RADPAR +3%) and slightly above average rainfall (RAIN, +9%) which led to a marginal increase of biomass production potential by 2% compared to the recent five-year average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was slightly below the 5-year average. Overall, the crop condition was close to average.

The slightly above average rainfall (RAIN +9%) in Sumatra was accompanied by average radiation (+3% departure) and temperature (-0.4℃ departure) and resulted in average biomass production potential (BIOMSS +4%). According to NDVI development graphs, crop condition was slightly below the 5-year average. Crop condition in Sumatra was close to average as well.

Considering that all the arable land was cultivated and that agro-climatic conditions were fair, CropWatch assesses the condition of crops that were in the field during the reporting period as moderate and satisfactory.

Figure 3.15a. Indonesia phenology of major crops

Figure 3.15b. Indonesia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the October 2018- January 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum 

Figure 3.15c.  Indonesia VCI for October 2018- January 2019 by pixel

Figure 3.15d.  Indonesia spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.15f. Sumatra crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15g. Java crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15h. Kalimantan and Sulawesi crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.32. Indonesiaagroclimaticindicators by sub-national regions, current season's values anddeparture from15YA, October 2018- January 2019

Table 3.33. Indonesiaagronomicindicators by sub-national regions, current season's value anddeparture from5YA, October 2018- January 2019