The monitoring period covers the late growth and harvest of Kharif (summer) maize, rice and soybean and the planting and early growth of Rabi (winter) rice and wheat. The crop condition was below average for the country during the period, except for the central northern area where condition improved in December and January.

In general, rainfall was low (RAIN 34% below average) but large differences exist between States. Below average values occurred in Meghalaya (-74%), Nagaland (-68%), Andhra Pradesh (-63%) and Chhattisgarh (-58%). Large positive departures occurred in Punjab (+53%) and Haryana (+23%). Nationwide TEMP remained average. The most significant – but still moderate - TEMP deficits were in Bihar (-0.8°C) and Daman and Diu (-0.7°C). The photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) increased slightly by 2% over the recent 5YA but larger departures were recorded in some States such as Manipur (+8%) and Puducherry (+8%).

Crop condition was beneath the previous five-years’average. The least favorable conditions occurred in Chhattisgarh,Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra which include areas with poor crop condition identified by VCIx below 0.5.

The biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) dropped significantly below average by 24%, nationwide. Overall, as perCropWatch indicators, crop-condition was below average, and reduced BIOMSS output is expected in Nagaland (-50%), Jharkhand (-46%),Madhya Pradesh (-45%), Meghalaya (-43%), and Andhra Pradesh (-42%).The most promising situation (BIOMSS higher than average) occurred inDelhi (36%), Punjab (32%) and Haryana (29%).

Regional analysis

India has been divided into seven agro-ecological zones: the Deccan plateau, the Eastern coastal region, the Gangetic plains, the northeastern region, the Western coastal region, the Northwestern dry region and the Western Himalayan region.

The Deccan Plateau region recorded 29 mm of RAIN (-61% relative to average), 22.9°C TEMP (+0.4°C) and 1102MJ/m² RADPAR (+2%). BIOMASS decreased 51% in the region which also recorded low NDVI. The CALF recorded 99% which is close to the 5YA,and VCIx was 0.8.

The Eastern coastal region recorded below average RAIN (-33%) and TEMP (-0.2°C). The RADPAR of 1115 MJ/m² was3 % higher than the average and BIOMASS was 19% below the 5YA. The region recorded 3% lower than average cropped area and a VCIx of 0.8 indicating moderate crop condition.

In the Gangetic region, precipitation amounts to 52 mm (41% lower than 15YA). TEMP was cooler by 0.3°C, and RADPAR was 2 % higher than average. The BIOMASS reached 202 g DM/m2, which is 28 % below the 5YA. The CALF recorded 98%, just above the 5YA(+3%), and VCIx was high at 0.9.

The Assam and Northeastern region recorded 110mm rainfall (52% below the average), with slightly higher averageTEMP at 19.6°C (+0.2°C) and RADPAR of 930 MJ/m2 (+3%). The BIOMSS was lower than the average (-29%), and CALF reached 96% which is nearly the 5YA. Crop condition was good with VCIx at 0.9 and good production is expected.

The Western coastal region received 18% lower than average rainfall, average TEMP (24.4 °C) and RADPAR of 1177MJ/m² (+3%). This region had 16% lower than average BIOMASS. The CALF was 10% lower than 5YA, but crop condition was satisfactory at 0.8 VCIx.

The Northwestern region recorded the lowest rainfall value in India (23 mm, lower than average by 28%) and nearaverage TEMP (22.3 °C) and RADPAR (+2%). The BIOMASS was lower than the average (-15%). CALF increased 7% above the 5YA and crop condition was average at 0.8 VCIx.

The Western Himalayan region received rainfall of 128 mm (12% above average) and just above average TEMP was recorded (0.3℃). RADPAR reached 871 MJ/m2 (-23 %). The BIOMASS exceeded the 5YA by 16%. The CALF was 3% higher than the average and VCIx at 0.97 indicate good production in general.

 Figure 3... India's crop condition, October 2018 – January 2019. 

(a). Phenology of major crops 

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangatic Plains (left) and North Eastern Region (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Coastal Region (left) and Western Dry Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Himalayan Region)

Table3.. India's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, currentseason's values and departure from 15YA October 2018 – January 2019.

Table3.. India's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2018 – January 2019.