Crop condition was generally below average from October to early November, and recovered to above average values in January. The planting of winter wheat has been completed in October. Accumulated rainfall and temperature were above average (RAIN +38%,TEMP, +1.0°C), while radiation was below  (RADPAR, -7%). The favorable agro-climatic conditions resulted in an increase in the BIOMSS index by 26% compared to the five-year average. The national average of maximum VCI index reached 0.95, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 51% compared to the recent five-year average.

According to the national crop condition development graphs, crop condition was below average across the whole country from October to the early November. It was above average from late November to early January in about 44 .6% of croplands, mainly in Khuzestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Provinces of the southwest area, Luristan, Hamadan Provinces of the central-west area, and Golestan and Mazandaran Provinces of the central-north area. Remaining croplands experienced unfavorable crop condition from December to January, particularly in the north-western Provinces of Ardabil, East Azerbaijan, Zanjan, Kurdistan, as well as most of the north-east area.

Overall, the early crop condition for winter crops is favorable in the current season. The final outcome of the season will be determined by soil moisture in March when vegetative grows will resume.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north (75), and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains (74).

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region,  the accumulated rainfall was 345mm (31% above average),  temperature was above average (TEMP +1.1°C), while radiation was below average (RADPAR -8%). The favorable weather conditions resulted in an increase of BIOMSS by 20% compared to the recent five years average. The CALF increased by 28%, and the average VCIx (0.99) was high. NDVI profiles showed that NDVI was above average from later November to January 2019, although the NDVI value was within 0.15-0.22.

Crop condition in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region was above average from November 2018. The region received 364 mm rainfall during this report period. The far above average (RAIN, +113%) rainfall and warm temperature (+0.4°C) resulted in a significant 83% increase of BIOMSS. The CALF increased by 20% compared to five-year average, and the average VCIx (1.13) reached the five-years maximum. Therefore, the crop condition for this season was expected to be favorable.

Figure 3.17a  Iran phenology of major crops

Figure 3.17b. Iran national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the October 2018-January 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.17c. Iran maximum VCI for October 2018-January 2019 by pixel

Figure 3.17d. Iran spatial NDVI patterns for October 2018-January 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right) 

Figure 3.17e. Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.17f.  Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.X. Iran agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2018-January 2019

Table 3.X. Iran agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, October 2018-January 2019