During the monitoring period, both maize and rice reached maturity. Maize has been harvested in the north-eastern part of Mexico, while in other areas it was harvested from During the monitoring period, both maize and rice reached maturity. Maize has been harvested in the north-eastern part of Mexico, while in other areas it was harvested from January. Rice was harvested as well, whereas winter wheat, which was planted from October is still growing. Soybean has been harvested after December.  Overall, crop condition was close to average, as shown by the crop condition development graph based on NDVI.

Temperature (-0.5°C from average) and radiation (3% below average) were close to average  but rainfall exceeded the average by 23%. This was beneficial for crop growth and is confirmed by a high value of maximum VCI (0.93). CALF increased by 6%, compared with the previous 5-year average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include Arid and semi-arid regions (82), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (84), Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (85) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (83). Regional analyses of crop situation can provide more details for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid regions are located in northern and central Mexico; they account for about half of planted areas in the country. Agro-climatic conditions were moderate over the reporting period. Rainfall rose 58% above average while temperature declined by 1.0°C. BIOMSS reached 551gDM/m2 and was above average by 58%. Radiation dropped 5%. The maximum VCI was high, with a value of 0.91. Moreover, CALF increased by 15% compared with last 5 years average. The situation of crop production in these regions is promising.

Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains is situated in central Mexico. Crop condition in this region was below average from  October to January. The agro-climatic conditions were, however, globally favorable: rainfall was up 54% but temperature and radiation decreased by 0.2°C and 8%, respectively, compared to average. The resulting BIOMSS increase is 51% above the 5YA. Note that the drop in NDVI that occurred in this region and the next at the end of October, which is also very visible in the spatial NDVI profiles (2.6% of arable land are shown as affected) is due to hurricane Willa (20-24 October). Refer to the section on disasters for the context.

In the Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (located in southern Mexico) crop condition was continuously below average according to the NDVI time profiles. Agro-climatic conditions were moderate, with a +47% departures from average  for rainfall but temperature and radiation deviating only by  -0.4°C and -4%, respectively, from the average.  BIOMSS increased above  average by 43%.

The Humid tropics with summer rainfall area is located in southeastern Mexico. Precipitation, temperature and radiation were 355mm, 24.6°C and 1000MJ/m2, respectively. The region is the only one in Mexico with a precipitation deficit, which amounts to 15% of average. Temperature and radiation were average. Biological growth potential fell 10% but nevertheless VCIx reached 0.93.

Figure 3.30. Mexico’s crop condition, October 2018 - January 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                    (c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right)) 

Table 3.55. Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2018 to January 2019

Table 3.56. Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2018 to January 2019