The beginning of the monitoring period covers the harvest of rain-fed rice (in the south) and early maize and drought staples  (millet, sorghum) in central and northern locations. The harvest of irrigated rice and late maize occurred up to January.

Agro-climatic indicators show above average rainfall (RAIN +16%) with close to average temperature and sunshine (TEMP +0.3°C, RAPDAR +1%).  Compared to the recent 5YA, the potential biomass production increased 13%. The cultivated arable land fraction (CALF) also rose 2% above the 5YA. The maximum vegetation condition index VCIx reached 0.91. In general, NDVI profiles and spatial clusters and other CropWatch show favorable crop condition.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Nigeria is divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ). They are referred to (from north to south) as Sudano-Sahelian, Guinean savanna and Derived savanna (the two main  maize producing areas) and Humid forest zone.

The Sudano-Sahelian zone has reached the end of the growing season in September-October and total rainfall was seasonably low (RAIN 61 mm) but nevertheless significantly above average (+59%). The temperature departure was negative by -0.6°C. RADPAR has remained constant and the BIOMSS index increased 45% above average. The arable land fraction (CALF) rose 9% above the recent five-year average. The maximum VCIx reached 0.88. The NDVI development graph shows above average crop condition. The unseasonable late rain has benefited range-lands and irrigated wheat.

The Guinean Savanna recorded an NDVI profile almost identical to the average of the previous five years. Rainfall was above average (RAIN +27%) and temperature was average (TEMP -0.3°C), resulting in high total biomass production potential (BIOMASS +19%). Sunshine was average as well (RADPAR +1%) and CALF remained constant. With VCIx at 0.92, crop condition is assessed as fair.

The Derived savanna region had mostly above-average agro-climatic indicators:   RAIN (271 mm)  was up 13% compared to average; RADPAR and BIOMSS increased by 2% and 8%, respectively. Temperature was average (TEMP -0.1°C). The NDVI development graph of this zone shows that from October to Mid-November crop condition was above-average; it was below average from mid- November to December. Irrigated rice is unlikely to have suffered but maize and other crops may have been affected. Altogether, however, with CALF reaching the very high value of 99% (indicating that virtually all land was cultivated) and the maximum VCI value of 0.94 CropWatch assesses the situation as favorable.

The humid forest zone is the wettest part of Nigeria, with growing seasons that may reach 365 days in the south. At 528 mm, rainfall was above average (RAIN +12%) , and so were sunshine (RAPDAR 3%) and the biomass accumulation potential (BIOMASS +5%). Temperature was somewhat cooler than usual (TEMP -0.4°) and CALF remained constant at the high value of 99%. NDVI curves (both the AEZ average and the spatial profiles) show some fluctuations, including negative values in early October. They may result from very large excess precipitation and floods during the previous reporting period. Maximum VCI was nevertheless fair and CALF was high, which stands for satisfactory crops.

Figure 3.22. Nigeria crop condition, October 2018-January2019

                                                      (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI               (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA             (e) NDVI profile

(f) crop condition development graph based on NDVI ( Soudano-Sahelian zone) and (g) Guinean savanna)))                                                                                                                                                                                              

  (h)  crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (Derived savanna zone) and (i) ( Humid forest zone)))                                                                                                                                                                                             

Table 3.39. Nigeria agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 15YA, October 2018-January 2019

Table 3.40. Nigeria agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 5YA, October 2018-January 2019