This monitoring period covers the maturity and harvest of summer maize and rice, and the sowing and early growth of winter wheat. Crop condition was generally favorable from October to January. Compared with average, RAIN was  35% above, while TEMP and RADPAR showed decreases (-0.5°C and -2% respectively). The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in BIOMSS exceeding the recent five-year average by 27%. The national average of VCIx (0.72) was just fair but the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased by a very significant 19%.

Crops condition was close to average in January, as shown by the NDVI development graph at the national level. According to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, close to 24% of the cropped areas were below average throughout the period, essentially in the South and north-eastern areas. Punjab and the Indus river basin, two major wheat producing areas present above average NDVI. Considering that weather, in particular rainfall, have been favorable so far, winter wheat prospects are promising.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind.

RAIN in the Northern highland region was 36% above average. RADPAR and TEMP were low compared to average (-4% and -0.7°C respectively). Accordingly, BIOMSS was 22% above average. The region achieved a low CALF of 41%. The NDVI development graph shows below average crop condition in January, especially in the north.  This is, however, still early in the growing season and the final outcome of winter crops will depend on soil moisture later in the season.

Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region in Pakistan recorded the highest RAIN (+58% above average). TEMP was below average by 0.9°C (which is significant), and the RADPAR departure was -3%. The resulting BIOMSS exceeded the recent five-year average by 48%. The area had a good CALF of 82% (16% above 2018) and a VCIx of 0.90. However, crop condition assessed through NDVI shows low values which could be due to delayed sowing resulting from low temperature or excessive rainfall. Overall, the crop production potential for the region is deemed to be neutral for the time being.

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was significantly  above average (by  48%), while TEMP was below average of 0.3°C and RADPAR was average to the extent that the estimated BIOMSS departure of 66% compared to the five-year average is probably optimistic, even considering that the vast majority of crops is irrigated. January crop condition based on NDVI was below average, but the low CALF (67%) is nevertheless a large increase over the recent 5YA  (+22%); VCIx at 0.84 indicates favorable crop condition. Overall, prospects remains favorable for the region.

Figure 3.23 Pakistan crop condition, October 2018- January 2019

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile                                                      c) Maximum VCI

d)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       e) NDVI profile

f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Balochistan Non-agricultural Region (left) Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (right))

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highlands (left) Northern Punjab (right))

Table 3.56 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 15YA (October 2018-January 2019)

Table 3.57 Pakistan agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 5YA (October 2018-January 2019)