In the Philippines, the monitoring period covers the harvesting stage of last year’s main rice, as well as the sowing stage of secondary rice and maize. According to the NDVI profiles for the country, crops generally showed unfavorable condition. Nationwide, precipitation (RAIN) presents a negative departure of 25% compared with average, accompanied by above average radiation (+7%) and slightly below average temperature (-0.2°C). The rainfall deficit resulted in BIOMSS being 18% below average.

However, according to the VCIx indicator, which mostly exceeded 0.80, favorable crop condition prevailed. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) nation-wide was almost 100%. Considering the spatial patterns of NDVI profiles, 100% of the cropped area experienced average conditions from October to November. Later in the season, however, from December to January four different patterns emerged, （1）29.4% of the cropped area experienced slightly below average condition, from Mindanao to Mindoro;（2）45.3% of the cropped area experienced slightly above average conditions, mostly in the Center and the North, from Negros and Cebu to Luzon; (3) a marked drop in December and a recovery to average condition in January in 13.5% of the cropped areas in patches of Mindanao and Luzon; (4) a marked drop in January in 11.9% of the cropped areas, affecting essentially Samar, Leyte, and about one third of Mindanao. The behavior of NDVI can be explained at least partially by several typhoons that affected the Philippines, such as  Pabuk in late December (refer to the section on disasters). Altogether, the outputs for secondary maize and rice in the country are expected to be below average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Lowlands region (northern islands), the Hills region (Islands of Bohol, Sebu and Negros), and the Forest region (mostly southern and western islands).

The Lowlands region  experienced a rainfall deficit (RAIN -27%), slightly low temperature (TEMP -0.1°C)，and well above average radiation (RADPAR +13%). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average. BIOMSS was down 25% compared to the average. Altogether, the outputs for secondary maize and rice are expected to be below average.

The Hilly region  experienced a rainfall deficit (RAIN -27%), average temperature (TEMP +0.1°C)，and above average radiation (RADPAR +5%). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average from mid-November in 2018 to January in 2019. BIOMSS was down 10% below average. Altogether, the output for secondary maize and rice are expected to be below average as well. 

The Forest region experienced a rainfall deficit (RAIN -23%), average temperature (TEMP -0.3°C)，and above average radiation (RADPAR +2%). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average. BIOMSS was down 13% from average. Altogether, the output of secondary maize and rice are expected to be below average as well. 

The NDVI-based Crop condition development graphs indicate below average conditions over the monitoring period. Crop prospects are generally below average due to rainfall deficits and cyclone impacts.

Figure 3.24.Philippines crop condition, October 2018 -January 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lowlands region (left) and Hills region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Forest Region)

Table 3.59.Philippines agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region,current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2018 -January 2019

Table 3.60.Philippines agronomic indicators by sub-national regions,current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2018 -January 2019