Maize was harvested during the reporting period and winter wheat began vegetative growth after being sown from November. The overall condition of winter wheat was fair at best (VCIx = 0.64). Both rainfall and temperature were higher than average (RAIN +35% and TEMP +0.2°C, a minor anomaly). Sunshine as assessed by RADPAR was just 1% above the reference. Biomass showed better condition than average (BIOMSS +19%) while CALF was lower than average (CALF -35%). The low CALF in this region was correlated with low VCIx values and the NDVI profile showed that crop condition in Romania was lower than average. Spatial NDVI profiles show a diversity of patters. In the Western and central maize, wheat and sugar beet plateau NDVI first increased in November and decreased in December while in the Eastern and southern maize, wheat and sugar beet plains NDVI had a drop in November but recovered later in the season.

Regional analysis 

More detail is provided below for three main agro-ecological zones (AEZ) of the country. They include the the Eastern and southern maize, wheat and sugar beet plains (105), the Central mixed farming and pasture Carpathian hills (104) and the Western and central maize, wheat and sugar beet plateau (106). 

All AEZs enjoyed an increase of rain over average while temperature and solar radiation were about average. VCIx in all three regions was low. VCIx was lower than 0.5 in most regions of the Eastern and southern plain, somewhat better (at 0.5-0.8) in the Central mixed farming and pasture Carpathian hills. Few regions in Romania have a VCIx exceeding 1.0.

According to NDVI development profile, crop condition was below average in the three regions. In the Central mixed farming and pasture Carpathian hills and the Western and central maize, wheat and sugar beet plateau, crop condition was near the average during October and November then deteriorated in December. Crop conditions in the Eastern and southern maize, wheat and sugar beet plains was below average at the beginning of the monitoring period. As for cultivated areas, a decrease of CALF occurred in all three regions compared with average. In the Eastern and southern maize, wheat and sugar beet plains, CALF fell more than 40% below the 5YA. The CALF of Western and central maize, wheat and sugar beet plateau decreased around 20% and the Eastern and southern maize, wheat and sugar beet plains decreased 7%. The CALF decrease should be noted as this may influence the final outcome of the season.

Overall the expectations for winter crops output in Romania are unfavorable.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central mixed farming and pasture Carpathian hills (left) and Eastern and southernmaize, wheat and sugarbeet plains (right)) 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western and central maize, wheat and sugarbeet plateau)

Table 3.47. Romania agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess and departurefrom 15YA, October 2018-January 2019