Crop phenology is complex in Russia due the large diversity of climatic conditions. Generally, winter wheat is harvested from mid to late summer and planted from August onwards, locally as late as October. Summer crops, especially maize, are harvested up to October or sometimes up to mid-November, well after physiological maturity.

Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 8% over the average of the previous five years but the nationwide average remains rather low at 63%. The value of VCIx in the country was 0.79, a moderate value which may result  from relatively dry and sunny  weather (RAIN -10%, RADPAR +5%). Both temperature and the biomass production potential were average.

NDVI development graphs for the country indicate close average to crop condition from October to early November. From late November to early January snow depressed NDVI values which, however, returned to just below average values at the end of the month.

NDVI was above average from October to November and then below average in about 24.4% of arable area of Russia, mainly in central Russia, Central black earth, Caucasus and middle Volga regions. In other 20.3% areas, including many areas of middle and west Siberia, NDVI was above average only from late October to early November. In most area of east Siberia, some areas of west Siberia and southern Caucasus (making up about 25.3% od crop land) NDVI was above average only in late October. In the other 30% areas of Russia, NDVI was below average during the whole period.

Compared to the previous five years, crop condition was globally close to average.

Regional analysis

A more detailed analysis is provided for twelve agro-ecological zones (AEZ), namely the Amur and Primorsky Krai area (110), Central Russia (107), Central Black Earth region (108), East Siberia (109), Middle Siberia (112), Middle Volga (111), Northwest Region including Novgorod (198), Northern Caucasus (202), Southern Caucasus (114), Ural sand west Volga-Vyatka (200), Western Siberia (113) and West subarctic region (199).

In Amur and Primorsky Krai, Middle Siberian and East Siberian regions, biomass expectations were above average by 27%, 12% and 19% respectively due to increased temperature (+2.5°C, +1.3°C, +2.4°C), in spite of decreased rainfall in middle Siberia (-9%) and east Siberia (-2%). RADPAR was close to average in  the three regions. The cropped arable land fraction in east Siberia was 89% (decreased by 3%), and VCIx was 0.81. VCIx was 0.85 in the other two regions where CALF increased by 4% and 27% respectively, but values were not very high, especially in Amur and Primorsky Krai (only 33%).

Compared to last 15 years, rainfall and temperature were all below average in Central Russia (-27%, -2.4°C), Central black earth (-22%, -1.0°C) and Northwest Region including Novgorod regions (-21%, -0.1°C), leading to decreased biomass by 6%, 8% and 2% respectively. CALF values were high (99% and 100%, respectively) in Central Russia and Northwest Region where VCIx reached 0.95 and 0.89. In the Central black earth AEZ, CALF was only 75% and VCIx was 0.82.

In the Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus regions, rainfall was up  9% and 38% respectively resulting in above biomass (+8%, +9%). CALF was low (48% and 50%, respectively) and VCIx reached 0.74 and 0.75, respectively.

Cropped arable land fraction was betwen 61% to 65% in Middle Volga, Ural and west Volga-Vyatka, and West Siberian regions. Due to decreased rainfall (-16% compared to average for middle Volga, -8% for Ural and west Volga-Vyatka) and temperature (-0.6°C in middle Volga and -0.2°C in west Siberian), biomass were all below the average of last 5 years.

In the West subarctic region, cropped arable land fraction increased by 6% to 98%, with a high VCIx value 0.90. Biomass was below average of last 5 years by 2% due to the reduced rainfall (-12%).

Figure 1. Russia phenology of major crops

Figure 2. Russia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the October-January 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3. Russia maximum VCI for October-January 2019 by pixel

Figure 4. Russia spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 5. Kaliningrad oblast crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 6. The Caucasus crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 7. Volga Basin crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 8. Central Economic Region crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 9. Southern Urals crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 10. Southern Siberian area crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 11. Northwest region including Novgorod crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 1. Russia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October-January 2019

Table 2. Russia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October-January 2019