Maize and rice harvests were reaching completion at the beginning of the reporting period, while winter wheat planting was underway. NDVI was close to the previous five-year average from October to early December 2018. After a marked dip (0.1 NDVI units) in early January, it returned to average by the end of the month.  Both temperature, rainfall and the resulting biomass accumulation potential were above average (TEMP +0.9℃, RAIN +26%, BIOMSS +17%) but sunshine was low (RADPAR -8%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 18% and the maximum VCI was 0.86.

The spatial NDVI patterns almost exactly follow the AEZs decribed in the regional analysis below. For instance, NDVI was close or slightly above average in 21.8% of croplands, mostly in the lowlands along the Syrian border and the Mediterranean, from the Sanliurfa to Antalya to Aydin and Tekirdag in the European part of Turkey. This corresponds to the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone and mostly high VCIx.

Regional analysis

The regional analysis cover four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone.

In the Black Sea zone, the NDVI was close and above average from October to December, while the NDVI was below average in January. Rainfall and temperature were well above average (RAIN +32%, TEMP +1.1℃) and sunshine was close to average (RADPAR -1%). The biomass was above average (BIOMSS +19%); VCIx reached 0.92 and CALF is up 3%. The tea, not crops, may resulted high high VCIx and the increasing of biomass. Good  climatic conditions were favorable for the crops. The output will be fair.

The Central Anatolian region had below average NDVI in late December and January, but average and above average from October to early December. Both  temperature and precipitation were above average (TEMP +0.9℃, RAIN +17%), while the radiation was below average (RADPAR,-4%). The biomass production potential was above average (BIOMSS +15%), and  CALF increased 4%. The VCIx was 0.80. The condition of crops is assessed as good.

In the Eastern Anatolian plateau, the NDVI was below and close to average during the reporting period, but above average on early December and late January. This zone experienced a precipitation excess of the same magnitude as in the two adjacent AEZs (RAIN +31%) but weather was unseasonably warm (TEMP  +1.8℃) while sunshine was rather low (RADPAR -11%), a combination that hints at very cloudy conditions (clouds lead to high minimum temperature). Both biomass and the cropped arable land fraction were above average (BIOMSS +18%, CALF +10%), and the VCIx was 0.84. Climatic conditions were favorable for crop production. 

As shown by the NDVI profile in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the NDVI was below and close average, except during late December. The rainfall was above average (RAIN +29%), while the radiation was below (RADPAR -11%). The temperature was close to average(TEMP, +0.3℃). Both BIOMSS and the CALF are up compared with average, by 18% and 19%, respectively. The VCIx was 0.93. Crop production prospects are estimated to be favorable. 

Figure 3.29. Turkey crop condition, October 2018-January 2019.

 (a)Phenology of major crops

   (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (e) NDVI profiles

   (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right)) 

  (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.74. Turkey agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2018-January 2019.

Table 3.75. Turkey agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departurefrom 5YA, October 2018-January 2019.