This monitoring period covers the harvest of maize from October to December and the early stages of  winter wheat and rye which were planted between August and  October.

At the national level, rainfall (RAIN 257 mm) and sunshine (RADPAR, 288 MJ/m2) were above average (+19% and +7% higher, respectively). Temperature (TEMP, -0.3℃) was close to the average. As a result of favorable weather, agronomic indicators  show satisfactory crop development and condition: maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) reached to 0.85, cropped arable land fraction (CALF) rose 13% above the 5YA to 72% (a low value!) and the contribution of the period to potential biomass reached 848 g DM/m2, +15% above the reference value.

However, national NDVI has been substantially lower than the 5-year average since mid-November, falling to 0.05 in December and January. As shown in the spatial crop condition development map and curves, NDVI varied widely across the country,, reaching low values almost everywhere except in 7.4% of arable lands in mid-southern and western areas, which stayed above the average during late December and mid-January. Maximum VCI reached at least values in the range from 0.5 to 0.8, with few areas below 0.5.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses are provided below for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ), including the Central wheat area, Northern wheat area, Eastern Carpathian hills, and Southern wheat and maize area.

The Central wheat area (Poltava,Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts) recorded sufficient rainfall (RAIN 275 mm, +29% compared with average) and radiation (RADPAR, 292 MJ/m2, +11%), but lower temperature (TEMP 1.1 ℃, -0.6℃). The resulting biomass production potential would be up 9% higher than 5-year average (BIOMSS 811 gDM/m2). Agronomic indicators showed a good VCIx (0.84) and moderate CALF (66%). With NDVI consistently lower than the 5-year average, crop prospects are currently unclear and need close monitoring when vegetative growth resumes.

In comparison with average, the Northern wheat area (Rivne, Zhytomyr and Kiev oblasts) received 6% lower rainfall,-0.2℃ lower temperature and 11% higher radiation. Generally stable agroclimatic conditions lead to an increase in expected biomass production (BIOMSS +7%). Agronomic indicators showed satisfactory CALF (85%) and VCIx (0.86), indicating satisfactory winter wheat development and condition.

The Eastern Carpathian hills (Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts) experienced abundant rainfall (+15% compared to average), normal temperature (+0℃) and radiation (+2%). Winter weather based biomass projection is 12% higher than average. Agronomic indicators show high CALF (95%) and VCIx (0.9), indicating good crop prospects.

The Southern wheat and maize area (Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts) received unusually  high rainfall (+48%), while temperature (-0.4℃) and radiation (+4%) were closed to average. As a result of plentiful rainfall, potential biomass was simulated to be 26% higher than 5YA values. A significant increase in CALF (+27%) and relatively high VCIx (0.8) put crop prospects at fair to good.

Figure 3.30. Ukraine crop condition, October 2018- January 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graphbased on NDVI                              (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to5YA                                                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Cebntral wheat area (left) and Northern wheat area (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills (left) and Southern wheat and maize area (right))

Table 3.55. Ukraine agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 15YA,  October 2018- January 2019.

Table 3.56. Ukraine agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season values and departure from 5YA, October 2018- January 2019.