The monitoring period covers the sowing, early growth and dormancy of winter wheat.

Crop condition was generally unfavorable. The national average VCIx was 0.82, a fair value, but the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 30%. TEMP was above average (by 0.5°C) while RAIN and RADPAR dropped below (-12% and -5%, respectively). The combination of factors resulted in average biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS +1%) compared to the recent five-year average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below five year average in October and close to the average in November. However NDVI was above average from December to January. For 74.3% of the agriculture areas spatial NDVI clusters and profiles show an above average situation from December to early January. This includes mainly parts of the Guliston, Jizzakh, Qarshi, Kasan, Mubarek, Qunghirot, Altynkul, Samarqand, Termez, Denau and Chimbay provinces. The eastern four provinces (Quqon, Farghona, Namagan and Andijon) has the lowest NDVI.

Regional analysis

For the regional analysis, additional detail is provided for two major agro-ecological zones in the country, referred to as the Eastern hilly cereals zone and the Aral Sea cotton zone.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, NDVI was below the five-year average from October to November. The RAIN and RADPAR were below average (-13% and -6%) and TEMP was above (+0.5°C). The combination of the factors resulted in high BIOMSS (+3%) compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.83. The cropped arable land fraction decreased by 26%. Overall crop prospects are unfavorable.

The Aral Sea cotton zone, experienced crop condition below the five years average from October to November and above the average from November to late January. Accumulated rainfall and radiation were below average during the monitoring period (RAIN -2% and RADPAR -3%), temperature was above average (TEMP +0.7°C). The BIOMSS index decreased by 5% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.76, while the cropped arable land decreased by 82%. Overall crop prospects are unfavorable.

 Figure 3.43. Uzbekistan crop condition, October 2018 - January 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

   (b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Cotton region(left) Eastern hilly cereals region (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central region with sparse crops

Table 3.112. Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2018 - January 2019

Table 3.113. Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2018 - January 2019