The monitoring period covers the growth of the 10th month rice, as well as the sowing of winter and spring rice. Most of the rice cultivation regions are distributed over the northern Red River delta and the Mekong Delta in the south. Overall, crop condition exceeds the 5YA reference in 34.2% of arable lands (mainly in the south of the country) where VCIx values above 0.8 confirm the favorable situation. Unfavorable crops occur in about 39.7% of crop areas (mainly in the north of the country) after November. CropWatch indicators show that sunshine (RADPAR+4%), CALF (0.95), temperature (+0.5°C), BIOMSS (+23%) and VCIx (0.96) were above their respective reference averages (15YA and 5YA). Only precipitation was below the average (-8%). Overall crop condition in the country is unsatisfactory.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, several agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Vietnam, among which three are most relevant for crops cultivation: Northern zone with Red river Delta, the Central coastal areas from Thanh Hoa to Khanh Hoa and Southern zone with the Mekong Delta.

The Northern zone recorded abundant rainfall (RAIN +39%), about average RADPAR (-4%) and average TEMP (+0.4°C). With high CALF (99%) and VCIx (0.93), the BIOMSS significantly increased (56%) compared to the average (5YA). The NDVI development graph has values above the 5YA only in November, after which the values decreased. Based on the agro-climatic indicators and NDVI development graph, below average output is likely.

The situation and expected impact on crop production in the Central coastal areas is conditioned by low rainfall and average temperature (RAIN -40%, TEMP  +0.7°C). Sunshine was abundant (RADPAR +13%). BIOMSS is up just 3% but both VCIx (0.98) and CALF (+3%) describe fair to good condition. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI is erratic behavior and its interpretation is inconclusive. According to agro-climatic indicators, below average output is likely for rain-fed crops. Irrigated crops should be doing fine.

The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) in the Southern zone for the reporting period is similar to the five-year average (+2%). Vegetation condition indices (maximum VCI) are quite favorable (0.95), accompanied by an increase in BIOMSS (+20%) resulting from average rainfall (RAIN, +2%) along with an increase in radiation (RADPAR, +6%) and average temperature (TEMP, +0.4°C). The crop condition development graph of NDVI indicates values that are about the average of 5 years. CropWatch expects good production in the area.

Over 80% of the croplands show average or below average crop condition. Overall, with the mentioned caveats, crop prospects are expect to be just fair.

Figure3.33. Vietnam crop condition, October 2018-January 2019

Figure3.33a. Vietnam phenology of major crops 

Figure3.33b. Vietnam national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the October 2018-January 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure3.33c. Vietnam maximum VCI for October 2018-January 2019 by pixel

Figure3.33d. Vietnam spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles(right)

Figure3.33f. Southern Vietnam (Vietnam) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.33g. Northern Vietnam (Vietnam) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.33h. Central Vietnam (Vietnam) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.87  Vietnam agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 15YA, October 2018-January 2019

Table 3.88  Vietnam agronomic indicators by sub-national regions , current season values and departure from 5YA, October 2018-January 2019