During the monitoring period, winter wheat was harvested and in the summer rainfall areas of the Center and East soybean and especially maize are currently growing and have reached mid-season stages (flowering). Precipitation (RAIN) was 15% below average, TEMP was average (+0.1°C) and sunshine, as estimated by RADPAR, was 8% above the average. Due to the rainfall deficit, the biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) fell 19% below the average.  Overall, the VCIx value estimated for whole country was 0.62.

The nationwide NDVI-based crop development graph shows unfavorable conditions below the recent five years average at some stage of the season. Average condition characterizes about 21.6% of cropland, mostly in eastern coastal areas of Kwazulu-Natal and  north-east Eastern Cape. VCIx is mostly high.

The most unfavorable NDVI values occur in south-western Eastern Cape (13.1% of arable land areas).

Gauteng and the northern province (35.9% of crop land) went through a period with low NDVI in December, but have since reached rather large positive departures up to 0.2 NDVI units. VCIx values tend to be above 0.8, which would indicate favorable crops.

Constantly deteriorating NDVI affects the central Free State and central North-west province. This is also the area where VCIx is lowest, confirming unfavorable crop condition.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts four agro-ecological zones (AEZs) relevant for crop production in South-Africa: The Humid Cape Fold mountains, the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, the Mediterranean zones and the Arid and desert zones.

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains, the average rainfall (RAIN) was 363 mm, 7% below the average, while RADPAR was 7% above the average and BIOMSS 12% below. The NDVI-based crop conditions graph show values that are below the 5 years average from October. The VCI value for the whole zone was the highest among the other zones at 0.69. As mentioned above, this covers satisfactory crops in the northern areas of the AEZ.

In the Mediterranean zone, where the agricultural season is now over, the average rainfall (RAIN) was just 37 mm, 56% below the average, leading to a 51% reduction in estimated BIOMSS compared to the average. The TEMP was 18.9°C, 0.2°C above the average, and the estimated RADPAR was 3% above the average. Although the NDVI-based crop conditions graph shows that the conditions were above or at the 5 years average conditions during the reporting period, the maximum VCI for whole zone was low (0.39). The CALF was 0.6, 3% below the average.

In Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, the rainfall (RAIN) was 352mm, 15% below the average, and the TEMP was 21.3°C, 0.1°C above the average. The estimated RADPAR was 9% above the average, while the BIOMSS was 17% below the average. The CALF was only 0.57, 4% below the average. The maximum VCI was 0.64. The NDVI-based crop conditions graph show is crop condition above 5-year average from November. As mentioned above crops in the northern part are in better shape than in the East.

Mostly unfavorable climatic conditions dominated the Arid and desert zones over the reporting period. Rainfall was 58% below average (71 mm over four months). The dry conditions have hampered crop growth, indicated also by a BIOMSS indicator 56% below average for the period. The region is, however, of marginal agricultural importance.

(a) Phenology of major crops 

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            

(c) MaximumVCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                              (e) NDVI profile 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Humid Cape Fold Mountains (left) and Mediterranean zone (right)) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize zone.

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Arid and desert zones.

Table 3.101. South Africa’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and  departure from 15YA, October 2018 to January 2019.

Table 3.102. South Africa’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2018 to January 2019.