The analyzed period coincides with the onset of the rainy season in the country. Based on the NDVI clusters, the general condition of crops was below average due to rainfall deficits during the establishment of the rainy season. The main cultivated areas had VCIx values between 0.5-1.0. In spite of reduced precipitation (14% below average) this represents much improved condition compared to the previous season where the whole country experienced a severe rainfall deficit leading to poor crop establishment. However, the CALF indicates a stable build up as the season progresses. A 25% below average value in CALF with a corresponding 15% reduction in Biomass were observed. The temperatures dropped slightly across the entire growing areas. RADPAR was average or slightly below average.

Regional analysis

The analysis covers three agro-ecological zones (AEZs): Zone I (<800mm, 80 -120 days) constitutes about 10 percent of the country and covers Luangwa and Zambezi river valleys; Zone II (800 - 1000mm, 100 - 140 days) covers 48 percent of the country, and Zone III (>1000mm, 120 - 180 days) constituting about 42 percent of the total land area. The rainfall is brought by the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and is characterized by thunderstorms, occasionally severe, with much lightning and sometimes hail. Most of the agricultural activities occur in Zone II as this zone enjoys relatively good ecological conditions and services.

The reported period was the planting period for rain-fed crops (maize, tobacco, ground nuts, sunflower, soybeans, vegetables, sweet potatoes, cotton) as observed from the VCIx exceeding 0.5.  The main cropping season has been generally below average, resulting from dry conditions especially in southern and western parts of the country, i.e. key cereal-producing areas.

Zone II, the main maize producing area received 8% below average rainfall and 20% increment in RADPAR; NDVI clusters confirm the slightly below average crop conditions experienced in the zone.

Overall, the crop condition in the main cropping areas is fairly average. Final yields may be affected by dry spells later in the season, most critically at the time of flowering.

Figure a: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Zambia

Figure b:  Maximum VCI

Figure c: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles