National Analysis

The rain season lasts from November till the end of March, which coincides with the growing period of most of the crops over the country. The monitoring period covers the sowing and growth of Maize, Rice and Wheat. While rainfall increased above average (RAIN 12%), the temperature decreased by about 1.4°C. The solar radiation was average. The agronomic indicators registered increases of 8% (BIOMSS) and 13% (CALF) while maximum VCI reached a high value of 0.96. Overall crop condition is favorable.

The NDVI development graphs indicate that the crop condition was favorable during almost the entire monitoring period. Below the 5 years average condition was verified mostly in the south where the provinces of Gaza, Inhambane and Maputo experienced unfavorable crop condition during almost the entire monitoring period. Crop condition also fell rapidly in late January in northern Tete province. Maximum VCI confirms the generally favorable condition of crops  nationwide, mostly in the provinces of Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala and Manica. In the province of Zambezia crop condition was favorable throughout the monitoring period.

Compared to 2018, Mozambique recorded a decrease of both rice yield and area of 2.2%, causing a reduction in expected 2019 production which is estimated at 367 thousand tonnes, a 2.3% drop. Maize yield increased 2.2% and cultivated area fell slightly (0.2%). The total maize output is expected to reach 2125 thousand tons in 2019, up 1.9% over 2018.

Regional Analysis

According to cropping system, topography and climate, Mozambique was subdivided into 10 agro-ecological zones (AEZ), listed approximately from south to north: (1) Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza, (2) Coastal areas and South of Rio Save, (3) North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane, (4) Central medium altitude areas, (5) Low altitude areas of Sofala and Zambezia, (6) Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete, (7) Mid-altitude areas and (8) northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado, (9) High altitude areas and (10) Northern Coastal areas.

Three regions recorded larger than average precipitation in the range of +10% to +35%: the Low altitude areas of Sofala and Zambezia, Northern Coastal areas and the Northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado. Two regions experienced a marked precipitation deficit, both in the south-west of the country: North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane (-22%) and Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza (-26%). The temperature was average or lower than average in all agro-ecological zones with the larges anomalies occurring in two central-western areas along the Zimbabwe border: Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete (-2.3°C) and the Central medium altitude areas (-1.9°C)

As a direct result of the definition of the BIOMSS indicator, the largest BIOMASS anomaly (+ 20%) occurred in Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza. The largest positive variations in cropped arable land fraction (CALF) where in the Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete (+23%), North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane (+26%) and in the Northern Coastal areas (+23%).

The maximum VCI for the agro-ecological region varied in the range from 0.77 and 1.00 and indicate mostly favorable crop condition. This is confirmed by the NDVI development graphs. The same indicator shows unfavorable condition during part of the reporting period only in the Northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado, Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza, Coastal areas and South of Save and Northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado.

Figure 3.32. Mozambique’s crop condition, October 2018 - January 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left: Inland of Maputo and Southern Gaza, right: Coastal areas and South of Save)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) North and Central Gaza and Western Inhambane (right) Central medium altitude areas. 

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) Low altitude areas of Sofala and Zambezia (right) Dry areas of Zambezia and Southern Tete.

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) Northern coastal areas (right) Mid-altitude areas.

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) High-altitude areas (right) Northern hinterland of Cabo Delgado

Table 3.79. Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values anddeparture from 15YA, October 2018 - January 2019

Table 3.80. Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values anddeparture from 5YA, October 2018 - January 2019

Table 3.81. CropWatch-estimated Maizeand Rice production for Mozambiquein 2019 (thousand tons)