The large variety of rainfall patterns in Kenya, usually referred to as long rains (summer) and short rains (winter) defines cropping patterns (long rain maize and wheat, short rain maize). During the monitoring period, the long rain maize and wheat were harvested and the short rain maize was sown and started to grow. CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show that, at the national level, weather conditions were mostly unfavorable. This includes essentially below average RAIN (21%) while TEMP (-0.5°C departure), RADPAR (+1%) and CALF (+2%) were close to average.  At the national level, crop condition was below average, which is confirmed by a significant decrease for the BIOMASS indicator (-13%) as direct result of low rainfall.

As shown by the NDVI development graph, national crop condition values were mostly below those for the five-year average.  The national NDVI values began to improve during mid of January. NDVI was above average in 19.9% of arable land, mostly around North-west Kitui, Machakos and Kirinyaga, where VCIx mostly exceeds 1.00. Average conditions prevailed in 36.3% of cropland including Nyanza and Western provinces extending east to the previously mentioned area. The westernmost part of this area had satisfactory VCIx in the range from 0.8 to 1. Mostly below average NDVI prevailed, with fluctuations, in the other regions where the lowest VCIx (below 0.5, indicating below-average crops or range-land) occurs mostly in two patches, (1) in north-west Laikipia (24% rainfall deficit) and south-west Samburu (-36% rainfall deficit) as well as (2) in northern Uasin Gishu where the rainfall deficit reached 50%, the most severe in the country.

Country-wide, taking into account that maximum VCI nevertheless reaches 0.87 in the presence of widespread rainfall deficits except in some areas of the south-eastern quadrant of the country including Garissa, Kilifi, Kisumu, Kwale, Machakos, Makueni and Tana River. The largest but still modest departures occur in Kwale (+7%) and Kilifi (+12%) along the coast in the south-east where good soil moisture will be available for range-land growth and planting of crops from late March.

Generally, crop condition is currently assessed as fair to average.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions we divided this country into three agro-ecological regions: The Eastern Coastal Area, the Northern region with sparse vegetation and Southwest Kenya.

The northern region with sparse vegetation recorded scarce rainfall (RAIN at 162 mm, or 26% below average), which affects Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, and Baringo. The deficit leads to a decrease in BIOMASS of 18%. The temperature was below average by -0.1°C and RADPAR was slightly up by 1%.  The NDVI development curve shows values below the five years average until mid-December. The maximum VCI was nevertheless high at 0.81 with slightly increased in CALF (CAL, +2%). Overall, based on CropWatch agronomic, agro-climatic indicators and NDVI cluster and profile the condition is assessed as unfavorable. Since the region is mostly pastoral the prevailing conditions had a negative effect on livestock production.

 The Eastern Coastal Area includes Mandera, Maralal, Marsabit, Wajir, and Isiolo; unlike the previous region, this area recorded 231 mm (4% above average), whereas TEMP was average (-0.1°C) and RADPAR was above by 3%. Even though the total amount of rainfall was above average, the total biomass production potential was below the five-years average (BIOMASS, -3%). The NDVI profile was above average with marked fluctuations at the start of the reporting period. Throughout the reporting period, maximum VCIx was 0.94 with CALF at 7 %, indicating mostly environmental conditions. 

The Southwest of Kenya includes Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu, major producers of long rain wheat and maize. From the national crop phenology map, the reported period was harvesting time. Compared to the above two regions this region received high rainfall with higher negative departure (244 mm, 23% below average). The temperature was also below average (-0.6°C departure), which resulted in a reduction of total biomass production (BIOMASS at -14%).  CALF increased by 1%. The NDVI based Crop condition development shows values below the five years average from October to December with above-average values in January.  VCI reached 0.86. Based on the above indicators and fluctuations of NDVI profile over time, crop condition is assessed as close to but below average.

Figure 3.25. Kenya's crop condition, October 2018-January 2019

                                                           (a) Phenology of major crops

          (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                       (c) Maximum VCI                                         

 d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                         (e) NDVI profile

(g) crop condition development graph based on NDVI ( East coast ) and (h) northern rangelands)))

  (i)  crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (South-west) 

Table 3.58. Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2018- January 2019

Table 3.59. Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, October 2018- January 2019