Winter wheat was sown from September and is still dormant or growing at the end of this monitoring period. Generally, according to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below the values of the last year, and above the average of the past five years in October and December. CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show above average Rainfall (+22%), average temperature (+0.2°C) and RADPAR (+1%). With CALF up 5%, BIOMSS increased by 12% and VCIx at 0.89, the overall crop condition in the country is assessed as satisfactory.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy; they include Eastern Italy, Northern Italy, Southern Italy (Sicily) and Western Italy (including Sardinia).

Eastern Italy enjoyed moderately above average rain (RAIN +11%), average TEMP (+0.3°C) and RADPAR (+2%); BIOMSS increased by 9% compared with the averages (5YA). VCIx was 0.87 with a low CALF (0.92).  The crop condition development graph indicates that NDVI exceeded the values of last year from November to late December, as well as the 5 years average. After December NDVI dropped below the values of 2017. About average output is expected.

The situation and expected crop production in Northern Italy results from RAIN up 26% compared to average, TEMP up 0.5°C and average RADPAR. BIOMSS exceeds the 5YA by 6%, VCIx reached 0.86 and CALF, 0.88. The crop condition development graph indicates values higher that during last year and reaching the average of 5 years from November to late December. According to the agro-climatic indicators, above average output is expected.

Southern Italy recorded a large excess of precipitation (RAIN +61%), average TEMP (-0.6%) and RADPAR (+1%). BIOMSS increased by 29% compared with the average (5YA). VCIx was the best ever (1.02) and arable land was fully cropped (CALF 0.99). NDVI exceeded the 5 years maximum  from October to December. Generally, above average output is expected.

The situation in Western Italy includes precipitation up 22 % above average (RAIN +22%) as well as average RADPAR and TEMP.  Compared with the average of the recent five years BIOMSS rose 14%. VCIx reaches 0.88 and CALF is just below 100% (0.98).  CropWatch expects above average production.

Overall, prospects of winter crops are generally excellent.

Figure3.24. Italy crop condition, October 2018-January 2019

Figure3.24a. Italy phenology of major crops 

Figure3.24b. Italy national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the October 2018-January 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure3.24c. Italy maximum VCI for October 2018-January 2019 by pixel

Figure3.24d. Italy spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles(right)

Figure3.24f. Eastern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24g. Northern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24h. Southern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24i. Western Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.45  Italy agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 15YA, October 2018-January 2019

Table 3.46  Italy agronomic indicators by sub-national regions , current season values and departure from 5YA, October 2018-January 2019