Winter wheat was sown during the reporting period in Morocco; it is currently in late dormancy or growing.  RAIN and TEMP were below the average (by 17% and 0.5 °C, respectively) and so was  BIOMASS (-13%) while RADPAR was 2% above average. The estimated nationwide maximum VCI was 1 and CALF was 29% above average. The nationwide NDVI development graph values exceed 5-year maximum condition. The map of VCIx shows that values were high nationwide except for the North coast of Oriental region and the west coast of both Guelmim-Oued Noun and Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra regions where ranged from low (< 0.5) to moderate (0.5 - 0.8). The spatial NDVI patterns map shows that only 10% of the cropped area experienced below the average condition after mid-December. In general, all CropWatch indicators concur to assess crop condition as about average.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agro-ecological zones (AEZs) relevant for crop production in Morocco. The first is the Cool sub-humid zone, the second is the Warm semi-arid zone, while the third zone is Warm-sub-humid.

For the three AEZs, the average rainfall (RAIN) was below average (by 20, 23, and 13% respectively). Also, the average TEMP for the three zones was below the average (by 0.4, 0.5, and 0.6 °C, respectively). The drop in average RAIN resulted in a drop in estimated BIOMSS for the AEZs (18, 13, and 12 % below the average, respectively), while the RADPAR was average for first and third zones, the second zone Warm semi-arid zone had 4% above average sunshine.

NDVI-based graphs indicating above 5-year maximum conditions for the Cool sub-humid zone and the  Warm sub-humid zones, and at or above maximum conditions for the Warm semi-arid zone. This is consistent with the VCIx estimates since the highest VCIx (1.22) corresponds to the Cool sub-humid zone. The other two zones had also very high VCIx value ( ≥1), indicating nationwide favorable crop conditions in spite of the precipitation deficit.

                                                              (a)  Phenology of major crops

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI              (c) Maximum VCI 

      (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Cool subhumid zones (left) and Warm semi-arid zone (right)).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Warm sub-humid zones.

Table3.52. Morocco’s agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October- January 2019.

Table3.53. Morocco’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October- January 2019.