The monitoring period (October 2018 to January 2019) covers the sowing and early growth of winter wheat.

Both precipitation and sunshine exceeded average values (RAIN +9%, RADPAR +10%) but temperature was just above (TEMP +0.1℃). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) underwent a slight decline of 1% compared to 5-year average. Weather condition led to an increase of 4% of the biomass production potential and were conducive to satisfactory growth of winter wheat.

As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was at 5-year average during the monitoring period except for early November. The spatial distribution of crop condition in Huanghuaihai was heterogeneous. During October and mid-November, the NDVI departure values over the region were nearly all negative except for Shandong peninsula and eastern Hebei. The crop condition turned to good in December and the NDVI departure were positive except for a few areas in northwest Anhui. From early January, NDVI of the whole area began to decline, showing poor crop condition in northern Huanghuaihai, including Heibei, Shandong and northwest Anhui. The pattern is confirmed by the maps of maximum VCI and biomass departure. The maximum VCI value for Huanghuaihai is 0.87, which is a fair value that leaves all scenarios open for the final outcome of winter wheat.

Figure 4.14. Crop condition China Huanghuaihai, October 2018 - January 2019

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(b) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA     (c) NDVI profiles

(d) Maximum VCI

(e) Biomass