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Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: zhaoxf
The current CropWatch bulletin describes world-wide crop condition and food production as appraised by data up to the end of April 2019. It is prepared by an international team coordinated by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Special attention is paid to the major producers of maize, rice, wheat and soybean throughout the bulletin. The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing weather conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports. Each is the object of a detailed analysis. Chapter 3 constitutes the bulk of the Bulletin. Chapter 4 zooms into China. The bulletin also presents the first CropWatch production estimate for selected countries in chapter 5.
The period from January to April 2019 (JFMA) covers the end dormancy for northern hemisphere winter crops, especially wheat, and the early stages of summer crops. In the southern hemisphere, it covers the harvest of summer crops (maize, soybean), or their mid-season and late stages (maize in southern Africa). Closer to the equator, it includes the harvest of the late 2018 crop of maize or rice and the planting of the first 2019 crops, for instance instance in the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil.
Agro-climatic conditions
According to the analyses presented in Chapters 1 and 3.1, prevailing climate conditions during the current 2019 JFMA reporting period were closer to average than during a long series of previous CropWatch reporting periods: global rainfall was just 2% above average, which compares with 13% in 2017 and 8% in 2018. Significant continental differences are nevertheless observed, with large rainfall deficits in Oceania (-23%), moderate deficits in central America (late and end of growing season), south America and in southern Africa where JFMA is the core of the maize season. Some national values were rather low, including Venezuela (-54%), Mexico (-49%), Guatemala (-43%), Portugal (-45%) and neighboring Morocco (-39%), the Philippines (-49%), New Zealand (-32%) and Kenya (-40%). The impact of low rainfall is often confirmed by CropWatch agronomic indicators, for instance in Australia where the fraction of cultivated cropland dropped 39% and vegetation condition indices were the lowest among the 20 top exporters of wheat.
Large positive rainfall anomalies occurred in two disjoined areas in the North America (+12%) and in an area extending from west Africa to central Asia (+11%) and eastern Asia (+10%). This area was highlighted in most recent CropWatch bulletins as it seems to have become a permanent feature. Specific countries to be listed include Iraq (+64%) and Syria (+75%). Both Iran (+39%) and Mozambique (+27%) and adjacent areas receive special attention in the section on disasters in Chapter 5 because of the destruction brought about by floods. Globally, the most anomalous conditions are those that prevailed in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle-East, especially Lebanon and Iraq, with precipitation excess larger than 40%, low temperature and sunshine (departures in excess of -1.2°C and sunshine 8% or more below average)
The largest area of spatially consistent positive temperature anomalies occurred in Eurasia in late winter. Examples include +2.2°C in Latvia, +2.4°C in the Buryatia Republic and Vologda Oblast in Russia, +2.5°C in the Yaroslav Oblast and +3.6°C in the Province of Heilongjiang in China. The unseasonably high temperatures may have affected winter crops and forthcoming summer crops in a way that is not yet fully understood, possibly in areas where agronomic and climatic indicators do not agree. Several cold areas occurred in north and south America. For sunshine, low values occurred (1) from west Africa to eastern Asia, (2) northern America and (3) the main temperature summer crop areas in south America. Virtually all other areas experienced above-average radiation.
2019 Production estimate
The production estimate proposed in Chapter 5.1 will be updated two times this year. Except for the southern hemisphere, it is currently based largely on a mix of actual crop and weather data for the JFMA period and estimates for May onward, as only one third of the year has elapsed. The share of actual data varies from approximately 18% for maize to 71% for wheat.
CropWatch estimates the global 2019 production of the major commodities at 1005 million tonnes of maize (up 0.7% over 2018), 731 million for rice (up 1.1%), 733 million tonnes of wheat (a 1.5% increase) and 331 million tonnes of soybeans, a 1.2% increase over last year’s output. The current estimate is one of the most optimistic issued by CropWatch over the recent cropping seasons, since all crops show positive variations compared with the previous campaign.
Countries that experienced large production increases for maize include mostly Argentina (+7%) and Mexico (+8%) as well as three South-east Asian countries including Bangladesh (+8%), Myanmar (+9%) and Vietnam where the estimated increase reaches 12%. All countries with a significant drop in maize production are located in Africa.
The production of rice increases in south and South-East Asia, starting with India (+1%), Indonesia (+2%), Bangladesh (+6%) and Vietnam (+8%). The most significant decreases occurred in Thailand (-3%) and Cambodia (-8%).
For wheat in several European producers decreases below 2018 output, some of them significantly in Romania (-17%), Turkey (-15%), Belarus (-13%) and Hungary (-11%). Positive values are observed for Italy (+7%) and Great Britain (+8%) and some eastern European and western to central Asian countries, including Ukraine (+4%) and Russia (+9%). The estimates will need to be reassessed because of the uncertainties about the impact of very high temperature in some areas. A production increases is also inferred for China (+1%), Egypt, Brazil, Ethiopia and Pakistan (+4% to +10%). The largest increases are projected for Pakistan (+10%), Morocco (+12%), South-Africa (+14%), Mexico (+17%), and Iran (+19%) where floods have destroyed crops and infrastructure but also supplied much needed water. Production decreases are projected for two southern Hemisphere wheat growers, Argentina and Australia, -3% and -13%. For the United States, the wheat production estimate is up10%.
Similar to the other rain-fed summer crop in the country, the Argentinian soybean crop is up (+9%) while Brazil stayed at the level of the 2018 output.
The performance of major exporters and importers does not rise any concerns for the availability of maize, rice, wheat and sorghum.
China
Climatic variables and the resulting crop condition were generally favorable in the main winter crop producing areas. Both precipitation and temperature were above average (20% and 0.6 °C, respectively). The total output of combined winter crops is estimated to reach 127 million tons, an increase of 1.23 million tons (or 1%) above the 2018 season.
The largest drop of winter crop production occurred in the provinces of Hebei and Shaanxi, but also in Shanxi, Hubei, and Chongqing. Henan and Shandong Provinces, the top two provinces in terms of winter crop production, both recovered from their poor situation in 2018 with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and 5.6%, respectively, due to the simultaneous increase in planted area and yield
For wheat alone, production is estimated to reach 117 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons or 1.2% above 2018. The largest wheat production drop (8.4%) occurred in Shaanxi. This is the largest annual winter crop production drop in percentage since 2013. The winter wheat planted area in Hubei province is 6.2% down from 2018, leading to very significant 7.2% reduction in production.