2.7 Central Europe to Western Russia

During the current monitoring period, main winter crops in central Europe to western Russia were in the field and dormant. Sowing of summer crop was in underway, starting in the south and west of the MPZ. Agroclimatic variables show average conditions for rainfall (down 2% below average) and sunshine (RADPAR down 1%) but 1.5°C warmer than average weather, which is significant for the large area of the MPZ (Figure 2.6). 

The temperature profiles displayed overall above average values from February to March for most parts of Belarus, Romania, north-west Ukraine, central and western parts of Western Russia. The departures range from 0.9°C to 5.3°C, affecting 72.7% of the MPZ. The effect on crops is mixed as the high temperature has locally damaged crops through defreezing-refreezing cycles, and increased crop water demand. Slightly below average temperature between 0.0°C and 0.3°C occurred  in late February and late March in 27.3% of the areas, including western Belarus, Poland, Romania, central and south-eastern Moldova, and southern Ukraine. 

Off average rainfall was recorded in Poland (RAIN -4%), Ukraine (-4%), Belarus (-14%), and central and southern West Russia. Only Romania had above-average water supply (+12%), resulting from high rainfall that  occurred in late January and late April when precipitation was more than 30% and 45% above average in Romania and in the west of Ukraine. Below rainfall around -15% was observed in late January, mid-February and middle-April over the southern part of Western Russia (Adygeya Republic, Stavropolskiy Kray, southern Rostovskaya Oblast), and south-eastern Ukraine. The reduced rainfall has not necessarily had a negative impact on the dormant winter crops, unless temperature has prematurely broken dormancy.

The biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) of the MPZ was close to average, being 6% above. Largest increases (more than 10%) occurred in southern Poland. According to the maximum VCI map values were above 0.8 in Poland, West Belarus and Eastern Ukraine. The maximum VCI was below 0.5 in most of Western Russia, where the arable land was apparently uncropped. For the MPZ as a whole CALF dropped 20 percentage points compared to the recent five-year average, which may be due to abnormal phenology or to winter drought brought about by high temperature.

Figure 2.6.Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, January to April 2019.

a. Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles              b. Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm)

c. Spatial distribution of temperature profiles     d. Profiles of temperature departure from average (mm)

e. Maximum VCI

f. Cropped arable land

g. Biomass accumulation potential departure

h. VHI minimum