1 Overview

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and subnational administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro-ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.1) although they tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 165 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

2. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tonnes of the covered commodities. Just 20 countries include the top 10 exporters with the United States and Argentina exporting all four crops and Brazil, Ukraine and Russia exporting three of them each!

Maize: Three out of four maize exporters where the crop was in the field during the reporting period had moderate to large excess precipitation, including Argentina (+14%), South Africa (+14%) and Paraguay (+21%). Both Argentina and Paraguay also had below average temperature (-1.2°C and -0.8°C) and sunshine (-4% and -1%), respectively. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was very close to average and Maximum VCI (VICx) was moderate, indicating some negative impact of  excess precipitation. Although South Africa had an overall positive water balance, the value of +14% situation results from very dry conditions followed by a late season spell of abundant rainfall associated with the Mozambican cyclones (refer to section on disasters in chapter 5).

In India the period covered includes the harvest of Rabi crops, including Rabi maize and wheat. Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators describe a globally average situation which should also result in fair crops.

In the northern hemisphere where maize is still to be planted, significant precipitation excesses in the USA (+19%) and Serbia (+30%) have provided good soil moisture but may have negatively impacted winter wheat. Below average rainfall affected mostly France (-18%) and Hungary (-12%).

Rice: India, the main exporter of rice, cultivates the crop during both the Rabi season (where it has reached maturity) and the Kharif season, where the crop is in early stages. As mentioned above for maize, indicators give no reason for concern. In south-east Asia, the reporting period covers the late harvest of one crop and the early stages of spring rice. Both Thailand and Vietnam recorded a moderate precipitation deficit (-12% and -6%) with above-average temperature and 6% excess sunshine compared with average. When taking into consideration CALF and VCIx, crop condition is assessed as average in Thailand but favourable in Vietnam where VCIx reaches 0.98. In Pakistan and the USA, the rice crop is yet to be planted and there is no reason for concern.

Wheat: Twenty countries in both hemispheres export more than 1 million tonnes of wheat. The top five exporters market more than 10 million tonnes internationally, including the USA, Canada, Russia, France and Australia. In Australia, the JFMA period covers the end of the 2018-19 harvest (up to January) and the early stages of the 2019-20 crop (from April). Very dry conditions have affected the period (RAIN down 17% below average) with a marked drop in CALF (-38%) and unfavourable VCIx (0.42), the lowest value by far among the 20 top exporters. The 2018-19 crop is unlikely to have been satisfactory,  but the impact on the  ongoing wheat season is still open.

Although the USA experienced very wet and cool conditions, the agronomic indicators reach values which indicate globally average conditions for winter wheat. Both Canada and Russia had about average precipitation and sunshine, but temperatures departed markedly from average with a drop in Canada (-1.4°C) and a rise in Russia (1.7°C) . Both countries, however, recorded a drop in CALF (-28% and -35%) and just moderate VCIx (0.80 and 0.72), respectively. Crops are best assessed as just fair. Weather conditions relatively similar to those of Canada and Russia affected Ukraine but agronomic indicators are somewhat more favourable  (- 11% for CALF and VCIx at 0.81). Although France had a marked drop in RAIN (-18%), agronomic indicators are very favourable (normal CALF and rather large VCIx at 0.95) most probably resulting from favourable sunshine (+6%), a variable which is usually the dominant limiting factor in northern hemisphere winter wheat production.

Among the countries ranking 7 to 12 for wheat exports, which cover the range from nine to three million tons (Germany, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Romania, Bulgaria, India) all had close to or above average rainfall, with the largest positive departures in Bulgaria (+8%), Romania (+12%) and Argentina (+14%). All had VCIx values above 0.75 (up to 0.93 in Germany) but CALF was down 11% in Romania and and 13% in Kazakhstan, where warm weather (1.4°C above average) may have led to snow-melt and cold damage.  For Argentinian wheat, the conditions are largely irrelevant as the harvest ended in early January.

All the remaining wheat exporters (ranks 13 to 20) had mostly slight to moderate precipitation deficits from -1% (Brazil) and -3% (Czechia) to -15% (United Kingdom), the only exception being Mexico with a very significant 49% drop. The only other “abnormal” weather was recorded in Lithuania (RADPAR +10%). In Mexico, where winter wheat is currently at mid-season, the States with the largest wheat production potential all suffered large rainfall deficits (Guanajuato -67%; Hidalgo -74%; Queretaro -82%). In spite of irrigation, the magnitude of the deficit is such that an impact on crops is very likely. In Brazil wheat is just being planted and mostly average JFMA weather is not expected to significantly affect the future output (to be harvested at the end of 2019).

Soybean: Among the eight countries that export more than 1 million tonnes of soybeans, all except Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay are located in the northern hemisphere and, as such, are planting or are still to plant soybeans that will develop from late spring and summer. In south America, however, the reporting period covers mid-season stages to early harvest and, as such, the current indicators are very relevant for soybean. Brazil experienced average conditions and indicators (VCIx at 0.78) point at average crop condition.  Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay experienced similar conditions characterised by above average precipitation (between +12% and +21%), below average temperature (0.8°C to 1.2°C below average) lower than normal sunshine (-1% to -5%). In Argentina,  the only country for which CropWatch agronomic indicators are available, values are average. Altogether, the soybean output is therefore assessed as average as well at this stage of the season.

3. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

3.1 A Caveat

All variables are compared against the recent 15-year average (2004-2018). This constitutes a change compared to the previous bulletins where BIOMSS was compared against the recent 5-year average (5YA). Agronomic indicators, however, are compared against the 5YA as before. Figure 3.1 shows “very dry” and “very wet” conditions in several areas that are currently in their dry season, for instance in the west African Sahel. In Niger, for instance, the rainfall deficit reaches 65%: 2 mm were estimated for a country where the 15YA reaches 6 mm over the reporting period. In other words, the country is in its dry season and no rain is actually expected: there is no drought. The text below refers only to areas where significant amounts of rainfall are actually expected. It is also stressed that in many equatorial areas where large amounts of rainfall are actually expected, below average rainfall not necessarily constitutes drought. An example in Malaysia during the current reporting period: average rainfall reaches 1042 mm, so that the amount recorded (712 mm)  is 32% below average. 712 mm, however, corresponds to about 6 mm per day, which is sufficient to cover the requirements even of water demanding crops. In fact, the deficit in Malaysia probably corresponds to a slightly longer than average “dry season” in February and, as such, does not rise concerns.

3.2 Rainfall and biomass (Figures 3.1 and 3.2)

Figure 3.1. Global map of rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA between January and April 2019

Figure 3.2. Global map of biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA between January and April 2019

Dry conditions

Rather dry conditions are observed in several tropical and equatorial countries, especially around the Caribbean basin, including Guyana and French Guyana (both at -80%), Suriname (-72%), Venezuela (-54%), Mexico (-49%), Panama (-46%)  as well as Guatemala (-43%) and Nicaragua (-32%).

In the western Mediterranean area, several countries are likely to have suffered a shortage of precipitation for they main agricultural season, especially Portugal (-45%), Morocco (-39%) and Algeria (-34%).

In south-eastern Asia and Oceania, the largest deficits occurred in New Caledonia (-58%), THE Philippines (-49%), New Zealand (-32%).

In Africa, we need to report the precipitation shortfalls that occurred in the Horn of Africa in Somalia (-53%), Kenya (-40%) and Uganda (-25%) and in parts of Southern Africa that were not affected by the two cyclones that crossed to Mozambique Channel, namely Namibia (-42%).

Wet conditions

The largest precipitation excesses at the national level include some countries bordering the Mozambique Channel (Mozambique +27%, Eswatini +35%), the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle-East (Kuwait +29%, Qatar +30%, Iran +39%, Lebanon +42%, Iraq +64%, UAE +71%, Syria +74%, Greece +76% and Cyprus +90%).

Some of those countries (e.g. Iran) are covered in chapter 5 (section on disasters) because of serious floods that also affected some neighbouring countries belonging to semi-arid central and western Asia such as Turkmenistan (+64%)  central Asian countries Pakistan (+6%). Much of the destruction was due to heavy precipitation following a prolonged drought.

Biomass

Biomass very closely follows precipitation as 84% of biomass variability is accounted for by rainfall variability, with very few exceptions usually brought about by low temperature, as in North Macedonia (RAIN +66%, BIOMSS +15%).

3.3 Temperature anomalies (Figure 3.3)

Figure 3.3. Global map of temperature anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA between January and April 2019

Low temperature

With the exception of Morocco, most of the area from west Africa to southern Himalayas areas experienced below average temperature, which includes a number of countries with departures in excess of 1.5°C; they occurred in Mauritania (-2.2°C), Jordan,  Mali and Tunisia (all three at -1.6°C) and Israel (-1.5°C).  Eleven more countries had cool weather (between 1.0°C and 1.4°C below average), mostly over winter crop areas including Iraq (-1.4°C), Egypt (-1.3°C) and

Pakistan (-1.3°C) and with the two Indian States of Bihar (-1.4°C) and Jharkhand (-1.0°C) as the easternmost areas.

On the American continent, the countries to mention include winter in Canada (-1.4°C) and summer in Argentina (-1.2°C), Chile (-1.1°C) and Uruguay (-1.0°C). In the US, the average departure was moderate (-0.7°C) but individual States recorded larger values which include South Dakota and Montana (-3.5), North Dakota (-3.0). Slightly less severe conditions prevailed in the major maize and soybean producing areas of Minnesota (-2.6), Nebraska (-2.4) and Iowa (-2.0). Some impact on winter wheat is likely in Nebraska.

High temperature

Most high temperatures occurred in a huge area from Belgium to Japan across central Asia. In western Eurasia the largest departures occurred around and east of the Baltic, including Poland (+1.6°C), Russia (+1.7°C), Belarus (+1.9°C), Lithuania (+2.0), Estonia (+2.1) and Latvia (+2.2) with departures between +1.0°C and +1.4°C in Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine. In Russia, some western Oblasts and Republics departures exceeded the listed ones, reaching +2.4°C in the Buryatia Republic and Vologda Oblast, +2.3°C  in the Oblasts of  Tver and Novgorod and between +2.2 and +2.0 in the Republic of Karelia and the Oblasts of Moscow, Arkhangelsk, Kostroma, Pskovs, Leningrad, Nizhny Novgorod, Vladimir and the Russian enclave in the EU, Kaliningrad. Several of the listed areas, especially in Russia, experienced snow-melt because of the warm wave with a potential negative impact on winter crops.

In central Eurasia, it is in order to list Mongolia (+2.2°C) as well as Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan which all averaged +1.4°C above the average.  At the subregional level it is in order to mention some Regions in in Kazakhstan (Almaty +2.3°C, Kyzylorda +2.1 and Jambyl +1.9°C) and Russian Oblasts (including Yaroslav +2.5°C, Tomsk +2.0°C and Kemerovo +2.0°C). On the eastern margin of the continent, some Russian oblasts of limited agricultural importance and some Chinese provinces recorded high values, for instance the Jewish Autonomous (+3.4) and the Chita (+2.8) Oblasts, the Kray of Promorsky (+3.1°C), the Agin-Buryat Okrug (+2.9°C) as well the neighbouring Chinese provinces of Jilin (+2.8°C) and Heilongjiang (+3.6°C). Heilongjiang recorded one of  the largest temperature anomalies among the more than 3100 countries, sub-national administrative units and agro-ecological zones monitored by CropWatch. Among agriculturally relevant areas it is exceeded only by some south-west African areas  in Angola (Huila, Cunene) and Namibia (Ohangwena) with +3.7°C and +3.8°C anomalies. The largest departures occur north-western America, especially in the Yukon Territory in Canada,  a subarctic region in Boreal America (MRU 61 which also includes Alaska), where temperature was 6.2°C above average, making it the most anomalous region in terms of temperature.

Three additional groups of countries are to be listed: (1) south-east Asian with Viet Nam (+1.2°C), Korea DPR (+1.3°C) and Laos (+1.5°C), (2) southern Africa with Botswana (+1.1°C), Angola (+1.7°C) and Namibia (+2.2°C) and (3) Guatemala    (+1.4°C) and Belize (+1.5°C) in central America.

3.4 RADPAR anomalies  (figure 3.4)

Figure 3.4. Global map of photosynthetically active radiation anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA between January and April 2019

Below average sunshine

Compared with above-average sunshine, relatively few countries experienced below average sunshine (35%). Most of them have already been listed above among regions with wet and those with cool conditions. In central-western Asia. They include Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (-10%), Turkmenistan (-8%), Afghanistan (-6%) and Pakistan (-6%) leading to the western Mediterranean and Middle-Eastern countries of Lebanon and Iraq (-8%), Syria (-7%) and Cyprus (-6%). The area is connected in the east with Nepal (-6%) through several northern Indian States including Haryana (-5%) and Himachal Pradesh (-7%)

In other continents, countries that deserve mention are Ireland (-7%) and the United States (-6%, with lowest values in Louisiana (-11%), -9% in California, Mississippi and Illinois, -8% in Arkansas, Indiana, South Dakota and Missouri and -7% in Iowa, Utah, Nevada, Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona and Nebraska.

Above average sunshine

Above average sunshine was recorded in central and northern south America (+6% to +10% in Honduras, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Belize and Guyana), central and eastern Africa (+6%  to 11% in the two Congos, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi), and southern Africa (+6% to +9% in Mauritius, Angola, Namibia, Botswana and Lesotho) as well as in New Zealand (+9%).

Also to be mentioned: south-east Asia and seventeen European countries from France, Denmark and the United Kingdom  (+6%) to Portugal and Montenegro (+10%) to the Baltic countries (+10% in Lithuania, +12% in Estonia). In south-east Asia, countries with departures larger than 6% include Thailand, Viet Nam, Philippines, Laos (+9%) and Malaysia (+10%). In several of them sunshine is the main limiting factor for the rice crop planted from January and the abundant sunshine will positively affect crop development and growth.

3.5 Combinations of anomalies

Globally, the most anomalous conditions are those that prevailed  in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle-East, especially Lebanon and Iraq, with precipitation excess larger than 40%, low temperature (departure larger than 1.2°C  and low sunshine below 8%) . A group of neighbouring countries (Jordan, Israel,  Syria and Cyprus) and Kuwait had high rainfall combined with low sunshine or cool weather, or both, but weaker departures than in Lebanon and Iraq.

Similar conditions with excess rain, cool weather and low sunshine also affected Nepal (RAIN +24%, TEMP -0.8°C, RADPAR -6%) and the United States (RAIN up 19%, temperature down 0.7°C and sunshine down 6%) during winter. As shown above, conditions can be more extreme when zooming into individual States. In Latin America conditions were unusual in a similar fashion but in a different season (summer) in Uruguay and Argentina with a moderate increase in precipitation (+12% and +14%, respectively), cool weather (drops of 1.0°C and 1.2°C)  and sunshine down (-5% and -4%).

In southern Africa, Namibia recorded a sharp drop in rainfall (-42%) associated with heatwave conditions (+2.2°C) and sunshine up 8%. Rangeland and cattle are bound to have suffered.