National analysis

This bulletin covers the growth and maturity of summer crops (maize, soybean and rice) in central and south Brazil while crops are still at peak growing period in north and north-east Brazil. Crop condition in Brazil was overall average compared to the previous five years. 

All agro-climatic indicators present very average conditions with 1% above average rainfall, 0.1℃ lower temperature and 5% above average radiation. There is also no significant departure from 15YA of ten-day rainfall and temperature according to the seasonal profiles. Normal and stable rainfall and temperature conditions benefited crops and resulted in 3% above average biomass production potential BIOMSS. Among the nine major agricultural states, rainfall patterns were as follows: (1) Rio Grande Do Sul and Ceara received sufficient rainfall 14% and 44% above average, respectively; (2) 5%  or 6% negative departures of rainfall were recorded in Mato Grosso Do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Minas Gerais; (3). Rainfall  in Goias, Parana and Sao Paulo was close to average. Temperature for all nine states stayed close to average with largest anomaly at 0.6 degree above average in Minas Gerais. Large positive departure of BIOMSS from 15YA were observed in Rio Grande Do Sul, Ceara and Santa Catarina which coincides with the rainfall departure pattern. 

The national NDVI development profile for Brazil presents close to average values in early January and exceeded the 5-year maximum during at end of April. However, the NDVI values were obviously lower than 5YA between end of January and early April. The 2019 NDVI profile fluctuates before early March, indicating variable condition. The VCIx map (national average at 0.78) does not show marked spatial variations. However, NDVI departure from average maps and profiles show different patterns from south to north: generally average to above average conditions in central to southern regions while adverse conditions were observed in the north and north-east, particularly in the lower Amazon basin. National CALF is 1% above average, indicating a close to average crop planted area. The great difference of crop condition from central-south to north and north-east indicates a favorable outputs for main summer crops while unfavorable outputs are expected from late planted summer crops. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological regions are identified for Brazil. They include the Amazonas, Central Savanna, Coast, North-eastern mixed forest and farmland, Mato Grosso, Nordeste, Parana basin and Southern subtropical rangelands. Over the recent reporting period, large departures of rainfall was identified in three zones: Amazonas (-13%), Nordeste (-22%)  and Southern Subtropical rangelands (+23%). The Coast zone received the least rainfall at 435 mm and North-eastern mixed forest and farmland recorded the largest amount at 1411mm during the last four months, 8% below average and 9% above average respectively. Temperature was close to average except for North-eastern mixed forest and farmland where 1.1 below average temperature was observed. The Southern Subtropical rangelands are the only zone with below average radiation (-9%). Nordeste and Southern Subtropical rangelands presented above average BIOMSS thanks to abundant rainfall while BIOMSS in all other zones presented either average or below average conditions. All zones showed average CALF compared to 5YA except for Coast and Nordeste zone.  

According to the regional NDVI profiles, the eight zones were sorted into three groups: (A) Double cropping pattern in Mato Grosso Zone, (B) single cropping but reaching peak stage in the north and north-east of Brazil, including Nordeste, Amazonas, Coast, and North-eastern mixed forest and farmland, and (C) maturity to harvest at end of May in Central Savanna, Parana basin and Southern subtropical rangelands. For group A, the crop profile follows same pattern as the national profile and the crop condition reached the best condition during the past 5 years at the end of April. For Group B, crop condition was above average in Nordeste zone. Amazonas and North-eastern mixed forest and farmland presented below average crop condition. Significant below average crop condition was observed in Coast region which received the lowest as well as below average rainfall among the zones. In Group C,  Southern subtropical rangelands showed average crop condition and the harvesting was almost concluded by the end April. Crop condition was below average in Central Savanna and Parana basin although the agro-climatic conditions were close average. The major reason is the water shortage during the previous period (October 2018 to January 2019) when crops were at early sowing to early growing stage.

Figure 3.8. Brazil crop condition,  January - April 2019

(a) Crop calendar of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Brazil

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial and temporal pattern of NDVI departures

(e) Brazil national rainfall pofile

(f) Brazil national temperature pofile

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Amazonas

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Central Savanna

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Coast

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Mato Grosso

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Nordeste

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Parana basin

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.11. Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2019

Table 3.12. Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures, January - April 2019