The current reporting period covers winter wheat in Canada. Most agricultural areas were still covered in snow from January to March, which limits the relevance of NDVI-based indicators in the three months leading to April. 

Nationwide, rainfall was average (RAIN, 0%), temperature TEMP was below by -1.4°C, while the radiation was slightly above average (RADPAR, +2%). The CALF was markedly below the recent 5-years average (-28%), and VCIx reached 0.80. The potential biomass was below the recent 15-years average (BIOMSS, -7%) due to the low temperature.

Compared to the their recent average, the three main wheat provinces had a precipitation shortfall (Alberta -26%, Manitoba –19%, Saskatchewan -29%) and rather low temperature (Alberta -1.9°C, Manitoba -1.7°C, Saskatchewan -1.8°C). Though the radiation were slightly above the average (Alberta +5%, Manitoba +2%, Saskatchewan +7%), the three provinces have below average biomass production potentials (Alberta -4%, Manitoba –7%, Saskatchewan -4%) generally indicating unfavorable growth of winter wheat.

Though the agro-climatic and agronomic indicators were poor, NDVI improved over 2018 in April was close to the recent 5-years average.

Although current indicators are mixed, the overall condition of winter wheat in Canada could turn favorable if conditions (especially rainfall) are favourable from May.

Regional analysis

The Prairies (area identified as 53 in the maximum VCI map) and Saint Lawrence basin (49, covering Ontario and Quebec) are the major agricultural regions.

In the Prairies, the main food production area in Canada, rainfall was below average (RAIN 140 mm, -26%), temperature was largely lower than the recent average (-1.9°C), while the radiation was slightly above average (+6%). Due to the rainfall deficit and low temperature, the potential biomass was slightly below average as well (BIOMSS, -5%). The Cropped Arable Land Fraction fell significantly  below the 5YA  (-50%), and the VCIx was 0.81. The NDVI values from late March to April were better than during 2018 and close to the last 5-years average. Even if winter wheat condition in the region should be favorable, production could be poor due to the low CALF.

In the Saint Lawrence basin, rainfall was significantly above average (391 mm equivalent to +38%), the temperature and radiation were both slightly below average (TEMP -0.9°C; RADPAR -3%). Both potential biomass  and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction were below the average ( (BIOMSS -10%, CALF -27%), while the VCIx was 0.79. The NDVI profiles also indicate unfavorable conditions. Production of this region is likely to be poor.

Overall, the current wheat production prospects of Canada are unfavourable, but the outcome of the season could still favorable depending on weather from May.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based onNDVI                                         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to5YA                                                          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

Table 3.14. January – April 2019 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.15. January – April 2019 Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA and 5YA