The reporting period covers the beginning of the early Belg season in bimodal rainfall areas, especially wheat and maize in East and West Hararghe and western SNNPR. It also includes the very first sowing of long maturing Meher crops (maize, barley and sorghum), teff and wheat in central and northern areas, Oromia and Amhara regions.

At the national level, all CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators were slightly above average: RAIN, +5%, TEMP +0.8°C, RADPAR +2%, BIOMSS +3% and CALF +7%. According to the NDVI-based season development graph, crop condition was below the five years average. The maximum VCI value was 0.85 and recorded as "good". According to NDVI clusters and profiles 47% of the country experienced less favorable crop condition. Other areas (central Oromia, Amhara, and Eastern Tigray) enjoyed favorable condition with the maximum VCI ranging from 0.8 to 1.0.  The reported period is till too early for assessing the outcome of the Belg crops but there is currently no reason for concern. In particular, land preparation is for Meher crops (to be harvested from August to December) is taking place under favourable conditions.

Regional analysis

The reporting period covers main rain-fed cereal producer areas found in the South-eastern mixed-maize zone, Western mixed maize zone, and Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone.

The South-eastern mixed maize zone recorded 104 mm of rainfall, a significantly drop of 58% below average. TEMP and the RADPAR were 1.1°C and 8% above average, respectively. The resulting BIOMSS is down 48%, which may affect  livestock condition and production. CALF decreased by 40%.  NDVI was below the five-year average, accompanied by a recorded low value of maximum VCI 0.54.  CropWatch assesses the conditions in the south-eastern mixed-maize zone as unfavorable.

Unlike the South-eastern mixed maize zone the Western mixed maize zone experienced slightly above average or average weather conditions: Rain +10%, TEMP +0.3°C, RADPAR average and BIOMSS +6%. CALF increased 1% but relatively low VCIx prevails (0.75). NDVI was above-average from January to Mid- March but then dropped to slightly below average until the end of April. Conditions remain favorable for Meher land preparation and livestock production.

Except for a small drop in sunshine (RADPAR -1%) all indicators were  above average in the  Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone: at 166 mm RAIN was 37% above the average, temperature increased 1.1°C and BIOMSS was up 30%.  Like the western mixed maize zone, this zone was favorable for livestock production. CALF showed a significant increase of 30%. This zone contains Central Amhara, the main teff and wheat-producing areas. Based on high NDVI (above the 5YA) and VCIx above 1  conditions were favorable for land preparation and first early planting for the Meher season.

 Figure 3.17. Ethiopia’s crop condition, January-April 2019

                                      (a). Phenology of major crops 

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (south-eastern mixed-maize (left) and western mixed maize zone (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone) 

Table 3.26. Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, January-April 2019

Table 3.27. Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure

from 15YA/5YA, January-April 2019