The harvest of rainy season maize was completed in Java and Sumatra, while the main rice harvest started in March. According to agroclimatic indicators, Indonesia experienced sunny but average weather conditions: rainfall (RAIN - 2%) and temperature (TEMP -0.4°C) were slightly below average, while radiation was up 4%. The biomass production potential fell slightly by  2%. Due to unexplained factors, the NDVI values were unrealistically low in the national NDVI development graph compared to the recent five-year average in mid-January and early February. Crop condition was below average from March. According to NDVI profiles, 90.7% of the arable land had around average crop condition, including Java, which has the largest share of cropped areas in the country, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. 9.3% of the arable land of Indonesia (mostly in Papua province) was below average due to cyclone Trevor (refer to Chapter5)

Regional analysis

The analysis below focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90, the main agricultural region in the country), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91) and West Papua (93), among which former three are relevant for crops cultivation. The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

According to agroclimatic conditions of Java, rainfall (RAIN +3%) and radiation (RADPAR +5%) were slightly above average, while temperature (TEMP -0.1 °C) was average, resulting in a small rise of the biomass production potential (BIOMSS +1%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below the 5-year average. However, considering that the CALF increased by 27% crop production in Java is likely to be average.

The agro-climatic conditions of Kalimantan and Sulawesi follow the same patterns as the country as a whole: accumulated rainfall down (RAIN -8%) , temperature about average (TEMP -0.3℃ ) and radiation up (RADPAR +4%), leading to a 5% decrease of the biomass production potential. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below to 5-year average. Considering the favorable VCIx value of 0.99, the crop condition shown in NDVI development graph maybe underestimated. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) also increased by 15% compared with average. Altogether crop production prospects are favorable.

Rainfall (RAIN, +5%) and radiation (RADPAR +5%) were slightly above average in Sumatra, while temperature (TEMP -0.3 °C) was just below average, leading to a small increase of the biomass production potential (BIOMSS +3%). As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop condition was close to the 5-year average. Considering favorable VCIx value of 0.98 and the 21% rise in CALF crop condition and production may exceed average. 

Considering that the fraction of cropped arable land increased 14% over the last five-year average and due to mostly average agro-climatic conditions CropWatch assesses the condition of crops during the reporting period as average to above average.

Figure 3.15a. Indonesia phenology of major crops

Figure 3.15b. Indonesia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the October 2018- January 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum 

Figure 3.15c.  Indonesia VCI for October 2018- January 2019 by pixel

Figure 3.15d.  Indonesia spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.15f. Sumatra crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15g. Java crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15h. Kalimantan and Sulawesi crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.32. Indonesia agroclimatic indicatorsby sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, Jan-Apr2019

 Table 3.33. Indonesia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 15YA/5YA, Jan-Apr2019