Kharif(summer) maize and rice in India have been harvested in January whereas Rabi (winter) rice and wheat were still growing between January and February; the harvest started in March. Crop condition was slightly below average over the reporting period, as indicated by the graph of NDVI development at the national level. 

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that nationwide rainfall, temperature and RADPAR were average (-3%, -0.3 °Cand 0%, respectively). Moreover, the overall VCIx was moderate, with a value of 0.83. However, the values of this indicator show marked spatial differences, with high values (greater than 0.8) being located in northern and eastern India while low values (less than 0.5) appear in the southern and western parts. As shown by the map ofspatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and corresponding NDVI profiles，23.4%of crops showed above-average condition throughout the monitoring period,  which were mainly located in northern India. In contrast, 25.9% of planted areas experienced continuously below-average crop condition, distributed in southern and western India.  These spatial patterns of NDVI were thus generally consistent with those of VCIx. Considering the CALF decreased by 3%compared to average, the crop production of this season is estimated to be slightly below average. As shown by the maps in figures 2.4g, 2.4h, 3.1, 3.2 and 3.4, the patterns are directly related to weather,as further described below.

Regional analysis

Building on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographicconditions, India is divided into eight agro-ecological zones:the Deccan plateau (94), the Eastern coastal region (95), theGangetic plains (96), the Assam and north-eastern region (97),Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (98), theWestern coastal region (99), the North-western dry region (100) andthe Western Himalayan region (101).

The Deccan plateau recorded 48 mm of rainfall (-20%) and average temperature and radiation, which led to slightly below-average crop condition, as indicated by the graph of NDVI development in this region. The BIOMSS decreased by 11% compared to average. The VCIx was moderate, with a value of 0.81. The crop production is expected to be below average, considering in addition that CALF decreased 7%.

In the Eastern coastal region, precipitation and temperature both declined (11% and 0.2°C, respectively) whereas radiation slightly increased by 1%. As shown by the NDVI profile, crop condition was generally below average. This is consistent with a below-average BIOMSS (-10%). The VCIx was 0.80. The CALF slightly declined 1% compared to average.

As a very important crop production zone in India, the Gangetic plains received well above-average rainfall (+62%) but below-average temperature and radiation (-1.0 °C and -3%, respectively). Crop condition in this area was below average before early February, but improved thereafter to average or above average. The VCIx was  high at 0.94. As the CALF increased by 2%, the crop production of this season is estimated to be above average.

The Assam and north-eastern region recorded 296 mm of rainfall, with a decrease of 16% compared to average. The radiation was average while the temperature increased 0.5°C. According to the graph of the NDVI development, crop condition in this region was average or above average. This is also corroborated by very high VCIx (0.98). As the CALF was above average (+3%), the outlook of crop production in this region is very promising.

In the Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat, rainfall increased 5% compared with average, whereas temperature and sunshine (RADPAR) slightly decreased by 0.8°C and 1%, respectively.  Average crops prevailed in the region over the reporting period, as implied by the NDVI profile. The VCIx was moderate, with a value of 0.76. As the CALF declined by 10%, the crop production is expected to be below average.

The North-western dry region covers northern parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat. Rainfall increased 15% while temperature and radiation fell 1.3°C and 3% compared to average. As shown by the graph of NDVI development, crop condition was generally average over the monitoring period. The VCIx was 0.74. Considering the spectacular CALF increase by 22%, the larger area may offset mediocre crop condition and the crop production for this region could still be average.

The Western coastal region recorded significantly below-average rainfall (-36%) and near average temperature and radiation (-0.1°C and 3%, respectively), which led to poor crop condition in the region, as indicated by the NDVI profile. Additionally, the BIOMSS dropped 25% below average. The VCIx was 0.70, which was the lowest  among all the agro-ecological zones. Considering further that CALF decreased by 11%, crop production of this season is expected to be well below average,

In the Western Himalayan region, precipitation increased 5% while temperature and radiation declined 0.4°C and 6%, respectively. As shown by the NDVI time profile, crop condition was below average before late February but average or above average since early March. This favorable situation was also confirmed by above-average BIOMSS (+13%) and an impressively high VCIx (0.97). TheCALF sightly increased 1% compared to average. Overall, the crop production in this region is expected to be above average.

 Figure 3... India's crop condition, January–April 2019.

(a). Phenology of major crops 

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangatic Plains (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Agriculture areas in Rajastan and Gujarat (left) and Western Coastal Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North-western dry region (left) and Western Himalayan Region (right))

Table3.. India's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, currentseason's values and departure from 15YA January-April 2019.

Table3.. India's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15Y/5YA, January-April 2019.