Crop condition was generally above average, but dropped to below average since March, then recovered to above average during late April. Winter wheat is still growing, and rice was planted from April. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, 39%) was above average, while temperature (TEMP, -0.7°C) and radiation (RADPAR, -5%) were below average over the last four months. The favorable agro-climatic conditions resulted in an increase in the BIOMSS index by 19% compared to average. However, it is worth noting that from the middle of March to early of April floods hit some parts of northern, western and south-western Iran (refer to the section on disasters in Chapter 5)，severely affecting winter crop growth and summer crop planting. The national average of maximum VCI index reached 1.0, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) significantly increased by 47% compared to the recent five-year average.  

According to the national NDVI development graphs, crop condition was above average throughout the monitoring period in about 41.7% of cropland, mainly in part of the South-west, Kermanshah and Luristan provinces in the west and central regions, and some areas of Golestan and Razavi Khorasan provinces in the north-eastern region. Remaining croplands experienced unfavorable crop condition during the monitoring period, affecting mainly the north-western region. 

Overall, the outcome of winter crops during the current season is expected to be favorable.  

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north (104), and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains (103).

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, NDVI profiles show similar changes as in the whole Iran country. The accumulated rainfall was 309mm (32% above average), while temperature (TEMP -0.6°C)  and radiation were below average (RADPAR -6%). The favorable weather conditions resulted in an increase of BIOMSS by 10%. CALF rose  39%, and the average VCIx (1.0) was very and unusually high. The outcome for winter crops of this region is estimated to be favorable. 

Crop condition in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region was above five-year average and five-year maximum during this monitoring season. The region received 296 mm of rainfall. The abundant rainfall (RAIN +82%) resulted in a significant increase of BIOMSS by 56%. The CALF also increased significantly by 124% compared to five-year average, and the national VCIx (1.2) was higher than the best values on record. The outlook for winter crops in this region is highly favorable. 

Figure 3.17a  Iran phenology of major crops

Figure 3.17b. Iran national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the January-April 2019 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.17c. Iran maximum VCI for January-April 2019 by pixel

Figure 3.17d. Iran spatial NDVI patterns for January-April 2019 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right) 

Figure 3.17e. Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.17f.  Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.X. Iran agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2019

Table 3.X. Iran agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 15YA/5YA, January-April 2019