Maize has reached harvesting from January to March in North-west Mexico; rice and soybean planting started from April. Winter wheat was growing between January and March and matured in April. According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, crop condition at the national level was average from early January to early February but deteriorated continuously from late February through April.

The CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show that temperature and RADPAR were average (+0.1°C and +1%,respectively) but rainfall dropped 49%, which might have negatively affected crop growth, as shown by BIOMSS ( down 29%) and a relatively low VCIx (0.80). Low VCIx values (below 0.5) were widespread in central and eastern Mexico (such as Durango, Zacatecas, Guanajuato and Nuevo Leon), whereas high values (above 0.8) occurred in the south-eastern and north-western parts of the country, including Veracruz-Llave, Tabasco, Chiapas and Sonara. Consistent with the pattern of VCIx, below-average NDVI, accounting for 21.3% of all arable land, mainly appears in eastern Mexico (i.e., Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon). In contrast, 22% of cropped areas recorded continuously above average NDVI in north-western, northern and south-eastern parts of the country (covering Sonara, Chihuahua, Coahuila De Zaragoza, Tabasco and Chiapas). Crop production of the current season is assessed as below average, although the average CALF of the country increased 1% compared to the past 5-year average. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include Arid and semi-arid regions (128), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130), Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains(131) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129).

Arid and semi-arid regions are located in northern and central Mexico. During the current monitoring period the regions recorded lower than average precipitation and radiation (-23% and -2%, respectively) but average temperature which, This led to generally below-average crop condition, as indicated by the NDVI time profile.This is corroborated by relatively low values for BIOMSS (5% below average) and VCIx (0.79). Although the CALF was 3% greater than average, the prospects for crop production in these areas are not favourable.

As important crop production regions of southern Mexico, the Sub-humid temperate region experienced a very pronounced decline in rainfall, a decrease of 62% compared to average, which resulted in unsatisfactory crop condition, as confirmed by low BIOMSS (-55%) and VCIx (0.75). Moreover,the NDVI values were also generally below average, especially in the late stage of the reporting period. Considering that CALF decreased 1%, the production outlook for these regions is assessed as be below average.

In the Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains, temperature and radiation increased (0.5°C and 2%, respectively) but rainfall declined 60%, which resulted in below-average BIOMSS (-48%). The trend of crop condition development was similar to the previous region, which showed a deterioration during the reporting period. The average VCIx of the regions, remains at 0.87.

The Humid tropics with summer rainfall recorded rainfall that was significantly below average (-58%) while temperature and radiation were above average (+0.2°C and +4%). According to crop condition development graph based on NDVI, crop condition was generally below average in these areas, which is consistent with the decreased BIOMSS (-44%). The average VCIx in the areas was 0.89.

Figure 3.30. Mexico’s crop condition, January-April 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                    (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right)) 

Table 3.55. Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January 2019 to April 2019

Table 3.56. Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA/15Y, January 2019 to April 2019