Nigeria

The reporting period covers the harvest of second maize and of irrigated rice. It also includes the sowing of the main maize crop in the south as well as the rain-fed rice. Rainfall was above average (RAIN +9%). while the temperature and radiation registered a decrease (TEMP -0.3ºC and RAPDAR -1%). The total biomass production potential increased (BIOMASS +8%) although the cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) fell 3%. The NDVI development graph shows crop condition to be close to or above average at the end of period, after a below average spell from Mid-February to March. The northern region of the country registered good maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) above 0.8, while the southern region recorded lower values. The poorest VCIx occurs in the central regions with many patches below 0.5 VCIx, mainly in the States of Niger, Ajbuja and Nassarawa. The maximum VCI was 0.89 countrywide. NDVI clusters and profile graphs show favorable average conditions in 76.6 % of the country, specially the northern part which is currently in the dry, crop-less season, except for some irrigated crops such as wheat.  Overall, the outlook for the second maize crop and dry rice is favorable.

 Regional analysis

Considering the cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Nigeria is divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ). They are referred to (from north to south and by increasing rainfall) as Sudano-Sahelian, Guinean savanna, Derived savanna and Humid forest zone.

During the reported period, in Sudano-Sahelian region was in the middle of its dry season. Rainfall will resume about June. Some irrigated dry season wheat is cultivated in the north-east. According to the NDVI profiles, the situation is normal.  

The Guinean Savanna compare to the humid forest zone and derived savanna, the recorded total amount of rainfall was seasonably low at 71mm but nevertheless slightly below average (-13%) . The rainy season is due to start late May or in June. Temperature and sunshine were close to average (TEMP -0.2°C, RADPAR -3%). The drop in  biomass production was  4%, which may have affected rangeland, which plays an important role in the AEZ. The CALF was also decreased by 11% compared to the average. However, NDVI, it was above the five-year maximum and the situation is best described as average.

 In the derived Savanna the rainy season normally starts from late April (west) to May (East) and the reporting period covers early stages of maize. The total amount of rainfall was recorded at 206 mm, which is 7% above average. Temperature and radiation remained constant compared to average. The increase in rainfall led to an 11% increase in total biomass production, while Arable land fraction (CALF) dropped by 4% below the recent five-year average. Maximum VCIx reached 0.84 and NDVI values were above average the previous 5 years. Overall, based on the indicators the conditions were favorable and there is no reason for concern.

In the Humid forest zone, crops, including rain-fed rice and maize have been growing since March. The high rainfall (RAIN, 516mm) was 18% above average. TEMP was slightly below average (-0.6°C) but with RADPAR up 3% and favorable precipitation, BIOMASS exceeds average by 14%. The arable land fraction remained constant.  In spite of some NDVI fluctuations before or at the beginning of the season, maximum VCI is at 0.91 and crop prospects at average or above. This also applies for other important food crops in Nigeria such as Cassava and Yams.

                                                                           (a) Phenology of major crops

        (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                  (c) Maximum VCI 

               (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Soudano-sahelian region (left) and Derived savanna zone region (right)) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Humid forest zone region (left) and Guinean savanna region (right))

Table 3.65. Nigeria’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure

from 15YA, January-April 2019

Table 3.66. Nigeria’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure

from 15YA/5YA, January-April 2019