The reporting period covers most of the winter wheat cycle from vegetative to harvest. It also touches the field preparation and sowing of maize. Crop condition was generally favorable from February to April. Compared with average, RAIN was  6% above, while TEMP and RADPAR showed decreases (-1.3°C and -6% respectively). The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in BIOMSS exceeding the 15YA by 10%. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased by a very significant 7%，which supports  expectations of favourable winter wheat output.

As shown by the NDVI development graph at the national level, crop condition was low to average in January, and increased to average or above average from February to April. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that 44.8% of the cropped areas were just on the average, and 21.6% were below average, essentially in the north-eastern areas and the  South. Punjab and the Indus river basin, two major wheat producing areas present above average NDVI during the key crop growing period from February to April. Considering that weather, in particular rainfall, have been favorable so far, winter wheat prospects are rather promising.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind.

In the Northern highlands RAIN was 17% below average. RADPAR and TEMP were low compared to average (-8% and -1.0°C respectively). However, BIOMSS was still at average level. The region achieved a rather low CALF of 51% among the three AEZs, but still 12% above 5YA. The NDVI development graph shows below average crop condition from February to April, especially in the north. 

Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region in Pakistan recorded abundant RAIN (33% above average). TEMP was below average by 1.5°C, and the RADPAR departure was -7%. The resulting BIOMSS exceeded the recent fifteen-year average by 35%.The area had a very favorable VCIx of 1.01 and CALF of 89% (3% above 5YA). Except for January, crop condition assessed through NDVI shows high values. Overall, the projected wheat output is at least average.

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was significantly above average of 44%, while TEMP was below average by 1.4°C and sunshine was below average as well (RADPAR  down 4%).The estimated BIOMSS departure of 58% compared to the fifteen-year average is probably optimistic, even considering that the vast majority of crops is irrigated. January crop condition based on NDVI was below average, but the low CALF (67%) is an increase over the recent 5YA  (+7%); VCIx at 0.95 indicates favorable crop condition. Overall, prospects remains favorable for the region.

Figure 3.23 Pakistan crop condition, January- April 2019

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile                                                      c) Maximum VCI

d)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       e) NDVI profile

f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Balochistan Non-agricultural Region (left) Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (right))

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highlands (left) Northern Punjab (right))

Table 3.56 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 15YA (January- April 2019)

Table 3.57 Pakistan agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure (January- April 2019)