The monitoring period covers the harvest of secondary rice and maize, as well as the sowing of the main rice and maize crops. According to the NDVI profiles for the country, crops generally showed unfavorable condition. Nationwide, precipitation (RAIN) presents a marked negative departure of 49% compared with average, accompanied by above average radiation (+7%) and below average temperature (-0.5°C). The rainfall deficit resulted in BIOMSS being 28% below average.

The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) nation-wide was almost 100%. The spatial patterns of NDVI profiles show that: (1) 47.0% of the cropped areas experienced average conditions, in patches of the whole country; （2）22.7% had slightly above average conditions, mostly in the Center and the North, from Negros and Cebu to Luzon;  (3) 16.6%, mostly as patches in Mindanao and Luzon experienced below average conditions; (4) 13.7% had average conditions after a marked drop in mid-January that affected essentially Samar, Leyte, and about one third of Mindanao.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Northern lowlands of Mindanao to western Visayas region, the Negros and central Visayas Islands region  and the Forest islands region (mostly southern and western islands).

The Northern lowlands of Mindanao to western Visayas region  experienced a rainfall deficit (RAIN -40%), slightly low temperature (TEMP -0.4°C)，and well above average radiation (RADPAR +12%). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average. BIOMSS was down 19% compared to the average.

The Negros and central Visayas Islands region  experienced a rainfall deficit (RAIN -49%), slightly low  temperature (TEMP -0.3°C)，and above average radiation (RADPAR +7%). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was above the five-year average from January to February except mid-January, then below five-year average. BIOMSS was down 20% below average.

The Forest islands region experienced the largest rainfall deficit (RAIN -52%), low temperature (TEMP -0.6°C)，and above average radiation (RADPAR +2%). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average. BIOMSS was down 33% from average.

In spite of the poor performance of rainfall and NDVI, the assessment of the crop situation in the Philippines is less straightforward than it seems, especially when considering that sunshine is often a limiting factor for crops in tropical areas. The Forest islands region, for instance, recorded 476 mm against the average of 991 mm, a large deficit. But 476 mm is nevertheless equivalent to 4 mm/day, at a time when potential evapotranspiration is of the same order of magnitude, i.e. generalised water stress is unlikely. In the other zones, however, water supply was possibly insufficient for lowland (i.e. rainfed) rice, but additional sources of water are frequently available and resorted to. Finally, CALF reached 100% and VCIx was unusually high in all agro-ecological zones. Considering that early and late crop stages have limited water requirements compared with full vegetative development, it is very likely that the dry rice and second maize that were harvested in February and March, as well as the wet rice and first maize that have just been planted are doing well, with a national crop condition gradient from north to south.

Figure 3.24.Philippines crop condition, January-April 2019

(a) Phenology of major crops

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern lowlands of Mindanao to western Visayas region (left)，Negros and central Visayas Islands region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Forest islands region)

Table 3.59.Philippines agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region,current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2019

Table 3.60.Philippines agronomic indicators by sub-national regions,current season's values and departure from 15YA/5YA, January-April 2019