The period from February to May (i.e. one month after the current reporting period) includes snow-melt and the subsequent crop re-growth after winter dormancy, with large spatial variations depending on geography and spring conditions. The same applies to the phenology of spring crops, of which the first are just being sown.

National NDVI profiles show a delay in the start of the growing period, being close to the previous year but lower than the 5-year average. Temperatures were above both the average and the values of last year until April, when they became close to the previous year's observations. Nationwide, the average temperature departure reached an exceptionally high value of +1.7°C, with even larger anomalies at the local scale. Average  Precipitation was first close to average, then close to last year's low values and eventually below both last year and the average. 

Figure.1 Nationwide crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.2 Temperature time series 

Figure.3 Rainfall time series

Regional data on NDVI show that the late crop calendar indicated by national data was observed in most regions of Russia.  Since a similar situation was observed during the previous year, it is likely that NDVI development will follow patterns close to those of the 2018.

Lowest VCIx values were observed in Middle Volga, Ural-Volga-Vyatka, Central Black Earth, Middle and East Siberian regions.  This situation is mainly due to late start of post-dormancy crop development. In South and North Caucasus regions VCI shows mostly favourable values above 0.8. 

Figure.4 Maximum VCI

The map of spatial NDVI profile clustering confirms VCIx patterns. The most favorable situation with positive departure is observed in 3.6 % of cropped areas and correspond to regions with highest VCIx.  The worst situation with largest negative departure affects 17.8 % of the cropland, mainly in Middle Volga region where VCIx is close to 0.5. Average NDVI occurs in 18.0% of arable lands, mostly located in the Central and Central Black Earth regions.

Figure.5 Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Generally, the current situation with late start of crop development is similar to the situation during 2018.  In most regions of Russia NDVI is close to both 2018 and 5YA values. However, a drop in rainfall at the end of April accompanied by drop in NDVI values in main crop growing regions might be a sign of future decrease in biomass. We stress that the above-average temperature patterns that prevailed in Russia is rather unusual; it is described in some detail in the Overview (chapter 3.1) of the current chapter on "Main producing and exporting countries".  The warm wather occurred at the same time as very significant drops in CALF observed in most regions of Russia, in the range from  6% to 74 % below the 5YA. Whether the drop is real and will be confirmed in future reports or whether the observation is  due mostly to late phenology will need close monitoring in the next CropWatch bulletin.

Regional Analysis

In the Central, Central Black Earth and North-western regions rainfall was close to average but temperature was above by 1.7 to 2.2 °C. NDVI development started late (in March) and was below 5YA but higher than during 2018 and reaching 5YA at the beginning of April. However, at the end of April NDVI dropped below 5YA  and its 2018 level. This decrease is not reflected in the modeled biomass which is by 9-14 % higher than 5YA. 

Figure.6 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Central Russia 

Figure.7 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the central Black Soils area

Figure.8 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the north-western Region including Novgorod

A similar NDVI pattern was observed in Middle Volga, Western Siberia and Ural-Volga-Vyatka regions. In Middle Volga and  Ural-Volga-Vyatka regions rainfall and temperature were above average (by 6% and 1.4°С to 1.6°С, respectively) , but RADPAR was below, which could potentially cause the delay in start of the vegetation period. Rainfall shortage (-11%) was the main factor causing the season to be late in Western Siberia. The temperature was slightly above average. 

Figure.9 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Middle Volga

Figure.10 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Western Siberia

Figure.11 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Ural and western Volga region

Significant rainfall shortage (26% to 42% below average) was observed in East Siberia, Middle Siberia, Amur Krai and Primorie regions. The temperature was well above average by 2.2 °C. Despite the lack of rain, NDVI of East Siberia was 5YA values, sometimes rising to 5-year maximum and the level of 2018. In Middle Siberia NDVI was near both the 5YA and 2018 values until the end of April when it dropped slightly. Amur Krai and Primorie zones was the most affected by rainfall shortage and much higher temperature (2.7 °C above average), while NDVI stayed below 5YA and the 2018 values. However, the modeled biomass was only slightly above the average.

Figure.12 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Eastern Siberia

Figure.13 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Middle Siberia

Figure.14 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Amur and Primorsky Krai

North and South Caucasus regions also experienced rainfall shortage (13-12 % below average) with temperature much higher than by 2.6°C to 3.3°C. In the Northern Caucasus this resulted in late crop season and NDVI staying below 5 year average but close to the level of the previous year. In Southern Caucasus region the situation was worse as NDVI stayed below 5year average and previous year level. Observed drop in modeled biomass was higher in Northern Caucasus region, while in the Southern Caucasus modeled biomass was close to 5 year average.

Figure.15 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Northern Caucasus

Figure.16 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the southern Caucasus

Vegetation season just started in Subarctic and West Subarctic regions. NDVI now reached 5 year average level. Despite late start, modeled biomass is above 5 year average.

Figure.17 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Subarctic region

Figure.18 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the western subarctic region

Table 1. Russia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2019

Table 2. Russia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2019